Rocky Mountain Perspective: Insight & not-so-PC News
  • Intro
  • November's NiLF & PT #s spike
  • October's #s belie recovery
  • Graphed & Charted DOL #s
  • July breadwinner jobs missing
  • O Channels Abrams on Jobs
  • Emperor's purge 130 mil'n
  • O's Shrinking Aug. Jobs #s
  • May grads flood job market
  • Spring 2014 ETA Job Numbers
  • March BLS Report Unmasked
  • Real Unemployment
  • Smoke & MIrrors on Labor Day
  • 98.5 Million Jobs Slashed
  • Obama's BLS Numbers
  • 90 Million Jobs Lost
  • Romney At Red Rocks
Picture
Beginning the first week of spring, Americans are used to renewal and change virtually all look forward to. We’re just days past St. Patrick’s Day and Sunshine Week, both of which are part of the official transformation into spring. St. Patrick’s Day has elevated celebration of green to dizzying heights that must vault environmentalists and far-left activists into something close to orgasmic ecstasy. Sunshine week serves as a precursor to and celebration of hope for spring’s always appreciated greening of plant life dressed up with a veritable rainbow of colors in blooms. It’s long been a season of promise and time of year the nation cherishes, where the beloved, central theme of the period is green.

What’s missing for a sixth year under the Obama Administration is a form of green necessary for survival for tens of millions of Americans separated from gainful employment, with unprecedented numbers increasingly relegated to Not in Labor Force status. The Department of Labor has simply shifted how and where the nation’s longest-term disenfranchised unemployed will be placed and how they should be categorized in a way that’s not so visible for the front-and-center U3 unemployment rate which is released and laughably supported by Obama’s fawning media each month. Since we’re approaching what some will insist is a recovery summer again, number four in succession for those keeping track, a critical question is why is the count of the nation’s employed still 2.95 million down from the workforce this Administration inherited in January 2009 from George Bush. And that’s with an influx of nearly 40 million ready, often highly educated and trained workforce hopefuls who’ve sought entry to the workforce for a chance at independent adulthood.

Employment figures remain dismal, which assures greenbacks will be in short supply for scores of millions of otherwise eligible and available workers. One of the BLS’ most telling measures, the Labor Force Participation Rate, has fallen to lows not seen since before women joined the workforce in significant numbers in the 70’s and early 80’s. The latest LFPR inched up to 62.7 from January’s 62.5 percent figure, neither of which had been seen since May of 1978. Remarkably, under the current Administration, America’s graduates from higher education, secondary and trade school programs have reached a mid-20-million count for five-plus years now, almost 6 million LPR’s have been granted green cards, upwards of 3 million H1-B, refugee and asylee visas have been issued combined, and tougher to determine millions of illegal aliens have waltzed unimpeded across our Southern Border, perhaps feeling invited from executive orders issued to ICE and the CBP curtailing enforcement activity. The burgeoning influx of labor has been especially tough on native born workforce hopefuls who suffer without opportunities.

What few understand is the magnitude of job losses under the Obama Administration and strategic sleight-of-hand the DOL has engaged in to keep disturbing information about workforce shrinkage from reaching the public. The Employment & Training Administration (ETA) keeps the nation’s only actual counts of registrants for unemployment following job losses, along with a quarterly employers’ payroll record count that’s more accurate than anything kept by statisticians at the Census Bureau. When Thursday’s data is released later this week, it will vault cumulative filings for unemployment by new registrants who suffered job losses above 115 million from January 24, 2009 through March 22, 2014. By Tax Day, the total number of distinct new claims for unemployment will have exceeded 116 million from records kept by state employment offices across the country.

Paired with an actual count of employed workers from payroll records relied upon to substantiate who’s covered for unemployment insurance with each state, the Obama Administration’s workforce shrinkage still registering 2.95 million fewer jobs than George Bush’s final numbers is especially troublesome. Of course, workforce figures have come back modestly from the 8.33 million jobs lost in 2009 and 2010 combined, in what’s referred to by many as the Great Recession. Somehow, with nearly 40 million newcomers seeking entry to the workforce and a verifiable 115 million distinct claims for unemployment following job losses, the 2.95 million jobs shortage is magnified several-fold and, instead, supports little to no recovery at all. A graph of the Labor Department’s only actual count of the nation’s employed shows on a quarterly basis when and under whom the current recession reached critical mass for tens of millions of Americans. Visible on the graph is a turn in early 2011, which corresponds to the 112th Congress seating a Republican House capable of slowing the kid-in-a-candy-store version of legislating and instituting progressive policies by the Democrat Supermajority in Washington for Obama’s first two years. Obviously, the job killing, healthcare crippling ACA was passed into law at a time not a single Republican voice mattered or supported the legislation during the Congressional vote.

Since there are scores of different metrics and hundreds of data sets kept using survey-based predictive estimates by the BLS, it’s not uncommon to find surprising variance, especially between unadjusted and seasonally adjusted figures. The latter allows considerable latitude for statisticians to address what’s seen as anomalous, curiously unexpected survey results, which are smoothed and presented to substantially support anticipated results for personally-invested government workers serving under political appointees in charge of the BLS. The CPS survey typically reports marginally above 50,000 responses, which is close in number to several internet compilations of Presidential polls ahead of the 2012 election that reported cumulative results from 20-plus polls. A targeted 90% response rate to 60,000 contacts by Census Bureau staff contracted to survey strategically selected households on a four-month rotating basis uses just .00016 (a ratio of about 3 out of 20,000) of the nation’s populace to arrive at the critically important BLS figures released to the public. When compared against the ETA’s actual nationwide counts, BLS rates, especially the seasonally adjusted predictive estimates, seem woefully inadequate and susceptible to less than accurate rates and figures. That’s at the heart of former BLS Commissioner John Hall calling the BLS data presented in late 2012 “deeply flawed”, and a former Labor Department Chief of Staff, Rick Manning, being more aggressive with his description of data that seemed intentionally misleading and heartlessly inaccurate for the express purpose of serving the incumbent President's campaign. Nevertheless, the unadjusted Employment Level shown on LNU02000000 suggests a miserable 176,000 jobs added across the President’s five years in Office in January’s BLS estimates little more than a month ago.

Real counts from the ETA are invaluable to understanding the economy and Americans’ workforce woes, but everyone who’s read online news comments or found political sites both parties follow understands Obama’s sycophants insist we’re in the midst of an impressive recovery that supposedly dwarfs Reagan’s second term successes. They give no more consideration to statistics they don’t like than a grade-schooler who glosses over college calculus or linear matrix algebra material for obvious reasons. For that reason, corroborating statistics which support Labor Department counts from the ETA can be helpful to make a point.

Since the left invariably disputes evidence of the Administration’s feckless, ACA-driven paralysis of the economy, some key corresponding figures are available in support of the ETA's real counts. Chief among those are tax revenues shown by the CBO from 2007 and 2008, ahead of the Obama Administration's crash-and-burn loss of 8.33 million jobs during 2009 and 2010. The CBO showed revenues from taxation of 2,567,985 (in millions) during 2007, then 2,523,991 in 2008, before dropping 419 billion to 2,104,989 in 2009. The bulk of that historic reduction was 230.5 billion slashed from income tax revenue, which vanished when the economy suffered 3.75 million jobs lost in Obama's inaugural year. In 2010, the CBO recorded a further 17 billion loss on Americans' individual income taxes with total revenue of 2,162,706, which remained suppressed throughout Obama's first term. Of course, millions of jobs lost, according to the nation's real count from the ETA, has everything to do with unprecedented budget deficits that were bound to skyrocket at a time revenues plummeted from a painfully shrunken workforce.

Specifically regarding budget deficits, keep in mind the Bush Administration averaged just $250,702 (in millions) across eight years from 2001-2008, while Obama's gut-wrenching deficits came up short $6,096,358, according to the CBO from 2009 through what’s predicted at this point for 2013, which estimates another trillion dollar deficit at $1,006,358. The average annual budget deficit since Obama has been in Office fell to $1,219,385, using the latest 2013 estimate which will be finalized once all tax revenues are counted around late summer or early fall. The difference in budget deficits for Obama calculates to 4.86 times the worrisome deficits turned in by the Bush Administration, and almost 40% of the latter’s deficits came from the Democrats' 110th Congressional budgets under Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. And those were budgets Obama took part in drawing up and voted to implement along with fellow Democrats in control of the House and Senate.

A few more statistics are available to support the painful workforce collapse Americans have endured under the Obama Administration. The growth of SNAP/EBT enrollees under Obama topped 19.4 million by the end of 2013 at 47,636,000 which nearly doubled increases during President Bush’s eight years in Office. By 2011, during the heart of American workers' disturbing job losses, expenditures for food assistance under SNAP increased 201% from 2008 final figures to $75.687.62 (in millions). At the end of 2013, the number continued to rise at a reduced pace, even as the left boasted a phantom, illusory recovery, to $79,882.73. During the same five-year period, Americans collecting SSI disability income rose by an unprecedented 2 million, and the BLS upped counts of Americans Not In Labor Force all the way to 92,534,000 on figures released in February 2014. The growth of 11.9 million in the NiLF estimate dwarfs every other metric of change for BLS figures during the Obama Administration's crash-and-burn economy, and it doesn't include a doubling of workers cast into a purgatory, of sorts, relegated to one of two discouraged workers’ metrics not counted as part of the U3 unemployment rate or the 92.5 million long-term disenfranchised workers stricken from every other employment measure by the BLS.

Census data, along with key Department of Labor statistics, offers insight into a demographic shift that may surprise some for what this Administration has done to an unwitting populace liberals like to call racist. While the 2010 Census reported Americans listed as "White alone" at 231,040,398, which was 72.4% of the population, Hispanic numbers expanded at a 43.0% clip (Mexicans alone by 54.1%) reaching 50,477,594 to become 16.3% of the nation's population overall. Black or African Americans counted by the USCB tallied 38,929,319, which was 12.3% of the population.

Those numbers and rates of growth magnify what's happened to the nation's workforce, especially where opportunities for white Americans are concerned. Using numbers from the BLS on the date Obama was inaugurated, white workers have lost 2.1 million jobs to-date, early in Obama's sixth year. Blacks gained 702,000 jobs during the same 62-month period, while Hispanics gained 2.7 million new jobs under the Administration's illusory recovery for the unemployed and graduates in search of work. The Digest of Education Statistics showed white college students made up 62-64% of college students across the latest five-year period, while blacks ranged from 13-15% and Hispanics made up 12-14% of degree granting institutions’ student population. Since whites continue to graduate a higher percentage of students from post-secondary institutions, the only slightly overrepresented group was blacks admitted to higher education institutions of learning. Hispanics were slightly underrepresented, so nothing from the nation’s high schools or colleges supports the significant workforce shift that’s taken place during the past five years. Including Mexican Nationals paid under the table who don’t appear on contractors’ books nor in employers’ counts from the BLS’ CES survey, Hispanic gains over the past five years have significantly outpaced the reported BLS growth for Americans of Latino descent. Apparently, since the Obama regime continues to insist recovery is taking place, the nation is supposed to celebrate the Administration’s curious reward for newcomers of Spanish heritage, at least.

The disparity of at least 4.8 million more jobs going to Hispanics than native born white Americans under Obama’s shrunken economy is magnified by the percentage each demographic holds in the populace. With white Americans making up 4.58 times the number of Hispanics reported on the 2010 Census and 3.5 times the number of unemployed Hispanics (with a significantly higher percentage than that moved to NiLF counts), multiplying the figures gives a basic, simplified difference in rate and likelihood at which an unemployed white could expect to find employment compared to a Hispanic seeking work during the Obama years. Amazingly, the U.S. government's own data from the Census Bureau and the BLS showed Hispanics found employment at a rate 17 times that of native born white workers in search of jobs. Including recent graduates, the rate increases to almost 20 times more likelihood in favor of workforce hopefuls having Spanish bloodlines. While Hispanic males continue to outpace every other demographic on workforce participation figures at 80.4%, foreign born workers have managed the next best participation rate at 79.3%, while our own college graduates sit atop native born categories at 75.6%. The cumulative count of white workers on BLS data sets under Obama has fallen to a painful 63.0% participation rate on February’s BLS figures. Keep in mind, the Department of Labor's Employment & Training Administration has shown 115 million once gainfully employed workers having filed unemployment claims after job losses since the third week of January 2009, and the Obama Administration remains down 2.95 million jobs to-date, according to comprehensive employers' payroll record counts gathered by the ETA.

Blacks, who gained 702,000 jobs, still were 2.8 million ahead of whites during the collapse from 2009 onward. Since whites make up 5.9 times the numbers of blacks in the U.S. and 3.4 times the unemployed, according to BLS estimates, the 2.8 million difference could be multiplied by at least the smaller factor to arrive at the likelihood of either demographic being restored to employment under this Administration. While the 7-8 times blacks were more likely to gain employment under Obama than an unemployed white individual came up short of Hispanics' nearly 16 times advantage, this Administration's unbelievable Affirmative Action policies run amok are precisely why white Americans have reason to object and be angry. Including recent graduates, blacks’ advantage for securing employment approaches 10 times the likelihood that a white applicant has for being hired under the current Administration’s tenure.

The affirmative action Pretender-In-Chief with his AA enforcer in the Justice Department has punished Americans like no former President or Administration could realistically have envisioned surviving. Remarkably, the cabal in Washington remains largely untouched.

The promise of renewal entering spring is one of transformation to green with life-changing growth across the country. Millions of unemployed grasp at whatever thread of hope they can find, awaiting opportunities seemingly rare as gemstones to return to gainful employment and the accompanying green necessary for a self-sufficient adult life. Barring significant imminent change, this feels like the right season for an American Patriot Spring along the lines of what the President supported and helped flourish in the middle-east while his own country smoldered. Among the things we must do is cut the head off the beast in Washington with November’s election, and May 16th promises to be a date for amplifying grassroots conservatives' message for restoration in the nation’s capital in a matter of weeks. Can you hear us now, Mr. President?



excel_summary_ui_claimants_since_2009_obama_eta_t1_rmp_9-11-14.pdf
File Size: 401 kb
File Type: pdf
Download File

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.