Workforce Fiction or Reality? Obama's Imaginative Tale Oscar Worthy
The big news early in the second week of 2016 isn’t just another champion crowned in college football, with Alabama’s stranglehold on the title and dynasty claims intact, but Tuesday’s final, penultimate State of the Union Address from President Obama for his eighth year in Office. Speculation abounded in the press about what to expect, with widespread agreement Obama’s anti-gun agenda and claims of a recovered economy would be central to the President’s argument to stay the course on his crony-driven, corruptly exclusive fundamental change.
During a week Star Wars regained its position atop the box office with “The Force Awakens”, decades after the original trilogy dominated the industry, science fiction has vaulted to the top of the big screen and mostly dominates new TV series as well. Americans seem to love fiction and appear enthralled with story tellers able to weave an enticing tale. Increasingly, Barack Obama believes his version of America might be as impressive and other-worldly inspired as the likes of JJ Abrams, George Lucas and the imaginative Steven Spielberg.
Never mind that the reality for scores of millions of hurting Americans makes the tale woven by Labor Secretary Thomas Perez for the Administration more akin to workforce fiction than the obviously popular science fiction. Maybe some Americans will appreciate that too.
Perez’ odd, but enthusiastic, cheerleading releases for Department of Labor blogs and the monthly Employment Situation Report ignore all but a handful of results from the 550 metrics surveyed for the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the Household Survey, and subtle internal adjustments that gifted about a half million jobs sans support on the Establishment Survey (CES) last month. Between 200,000 and a quarter-million jobs are added based on the assumption that we’re in a “Dynamic Economy” according to the Labor Department each and every month for the Establishment Survey’s total nonfarm and total private labor force estimates on Table B-1. Perhaps, as importantly, BLS documents explain the 90% confidence level indicates it’s 90% likely that the estimated figure would come within ±105,000 to 110,000. For example, in November, that means the originally estimated 211,000 jobs added, in statisticians terms, was really just 90% likely to have been 101,000 or greater. I’ll explain more about the birth and death cycle that gifts upwards of 200,000 jobs monthly to the media’s commonly used counts later.
During the month of December, the total nonfarm count was generously hiked 281,000 phantom jobs on the seasonally adjusted figure that’s typically all that appears in media reports. Statisticians at the Labor Department are given leeway to adjust calculations based upon seasonal variations, weather related occurrences, and seeming aberrations on results that differ significantly from what was anticipated. Former Director of the Office of Management and Budget, David Stockman, explained the folly used internally to arrive at figures supportive of self-serving Washington elites, Wall Street and bankers’ agendas admirably in an article penned last week. “Stockman: Only 11,000 Jobs Last Month, Not 292,000” is a worthy read and will be linked here.
http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/DavidStockman/jobs-labor-market-hiring-workers/2016/01/09/id/708830/
While expanding on former BLS Commissioner Keith Hall’s comments just months after leaving the DOL’s statistics division helm where, in late 2012, Hall called the BLS figures “deeply flawed”, Stockman leaves out details that show more clearly yet how inaccurate the data often is. Last February, Gallup CEO, Jim Clifton, created a media firestorm by calling the 5.6% unemployment rate “The Big Lie” in a personal statement capably supported in print, as well as in person during broadcast media interviews. Among other highly regarded, brave business leaders, Jack Welch called the figures politically-driven and fabricated in the last presidential election when monthly unemployment rates dropped by .2, then .3% in individual months leading up to November’s election. Unfortunately, none offered the support available from DOL and BLS internal documents which appears here along with important observations from the past month and second-half of 2015’s Employment Situation Reports.
In brief, before the Employment Situation Report (ESR) is dissected in detail, another 284,000 Americans stricken from the labor force spiked December’s Not in Labor Force count from 94,407,000 to 94,691,000 on the not seasonally adjusted figure. That’s paired with a loss of 63,000 jobs on the CPS not seasonally adjusted Household Data count of the employed from 149,766,000 in November to 149,703,000 in December. Reported, instead, was a surprisingly strong 485,000 gain on seasonally adjusted employment for December. Of course, for those paying attention, that trick's awfully tired and fails in terms of imagination. A month earlier, the not seasonally adjusted job growth in November was a miserable 50,000 on the Household Survey, while 244,000 were reported to have been added to the workforce on BLS seasonally adjusted estimates. Among the more troublesome aspects of November’s ESR that eluded the media was 1,107,000 part time jobs added in November, according to HD Table A-8 Persons at Work Part Time not seasonally adjusted counts. Since only 50,000 jobs were reported to have been added by CPS survey respondents, it's clear roughly 1,057,000 full time jobs ended in November and about a million adult breadwinners lost their jobs. The quality of jobs made the gain of 476,000 workers with less than a high school diploma all-too predictable for the month.
It’s important to note that what appears without fail in media reports is seasonally adjusted data that's oftentimes contradicted by less manipulated statistics. The Labor Department's own admission of which figures are more accurate and representative seems worth including, as a result. The DOL's published explanation of Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey words it thusly; "...it is important to note that seasonal adjustment is merely an approximation based on past experience. Seasonally adjusted estimates have a broader margin of possible error than do the original data on which they are based, because they not only are subject to sampling and other errors but also are affected by the uncertainties of the seasonal adjustment process itself." One doesn't have to have post-graduate credentials in math or degrees in the field to recognize the original survey responses collected and reported as not seasonally adjusted should carry more weight.
It might be useful to include some basics about the process described in the BLS’ Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey. Chapter 1 describes the sample pool as about 72,000 households from 754 primary sampling units, or PSUs, in strategically selected geographic locations. Of the 72,000 housing units assigned for data collection, about 60,000 are occupied and thus eligible for interview. Of the 60,000, it’s anticipated that 8% or more won’t respond in a typical month, but that assumes a healthy economy with 5 to 6% unemployment. First interviews are normally conducted with an in person visit, before telephone calls address months two through four for occupied, responding households. Thereafter, the strategically selected households are rotated out of the survey before being revisited for four more interviews eight months later.
In highly volatile conditions, and where unemployment exceeded 5 to 6%, the BLS’ targeted 90% response rate wasn’t proving as reliably achievable as CPS documents seemed to suggest. Internal pressure to reach the threshold led to about a dozen USCB survey workers being identified by coworkers for falsifying data and turning in unusually high numbers of responses in 2010 and 2011. A single staffer whose numbers stood out admitted to creating and assigning jobs to non-respondents while contending he and the other survey takers were instructed to do so by superiors determined to reach the critical 90% response threshold. No disciplinary action was administered for the deception, and the remaining coworkers who’d turned in more improbable numbers and rates of response weren’t investigated, according to internal reports.
The important takeaway from the CPS parameters is that, typically, responses are gathered from somewhere between 52,000 and 55,000 respondents. Perhaps some obvious limitations of data reliability can be grasped by recognizing the ratio of households in the CPS survey at one’s neighborhood level would fall between two and three disparate units per zip code nationwide, on average. In actuality, the survey claims to select four from the chosen PSUs giving more representation to adjacent, highly populated areas. As a result, extensive demographic figures paint the nation’s employment picture with something like an artist’s brush, while the canvas could be the entirety of the devastated World Trade Center grounds.
Let’s get back to more December and second-half of 2015 actual employment results. Much of it will be eye-opening, including the pace of hiring in 2015, which has been on a downward slide, decreasing by 4,405,604 new employee hires since early 2013, according to Employment & Training Administration (ETA) counts. In 2015 alone, hiring activity fell 1,399,160, which was, without a doubt, less painful than 2010’s 4,041,729 hiring squeeze but fourth worst this millennium behind 2004 and 2013 cutbacks of 2,559,385 and 2,003,308 from prior year numbers, respectively. While the year-over-year comparison showed 2010 dropping more than last year, the actual number of hires, at 19,210,088 in 2010, recorded 2,220,692 more than employers’ payroll records posted for calendar year 2015. Since net job gains are defined by hires (employment growth) in excess of jobs lost, the reported drop in weekly unemployment claims the Administration has boasted about since Thomas Perez’ installation as Labor Secretary July 23, 2013, has gone unmatched with anything close to corresponding job gains. From the time of Perez’ swearing in, the loss of hires, with life-changing implications for the gainfully employed, now exceeds 4 million.
A review of Household Data Tables A-1 through A-16 yielded some key not seasonally adjusted BLS Employment Situation Report results for December beyond the cringe worthy NiLF spike to 94,691,000 and respondents’ reported 63,000 jobs lost for the month. Of the 94.7 million, 56,272,000 are of working age – less than 65 – and another 3,666,000 are considered marginally attached or discouraged workers who aren’t included amongst the unemployed or NiLF. Perez’ and the President’s tale of an economy worth celebrating notwithstanding, the majority demographic, who self-identify as white, lost 346,000 jobs during December. While adult white males lost 239,000 jobs and adult females dropped 264,000 more, white teens age 16 to 19 partly mitigated the loss with 157,000 jobs gained.
Showing more promise, black or African-Americans gained 113,000 jobs in December with adult males claiming 79,000 jobs, adult females holding mostly steady with a loss of 7,000, and black teens 16 to 19 years-old gaining 39,000 more. Asian workers added 78,000 jobs in December, while Hispanics had an atypical month with a modest 63,000 jobs lost on not seasonally adjusted counts. The result was so uncharacteristic for the demographic that's gained the majority of jobs during Obama's tenure at almost 5.2 million, the BLS' seasonally adjusted figure contradicted the unusual loss with a gain of 71,000. Hispanic men mostly held steady with a statistically insignificant loss of 26,000, while Hispanic women exited December's workforce to the tune of 111,000. Like their counterparts, Hispanic teens were the big winners gaining 73,000 jobs for the final month of the year. Collectively, teens gained 225,000 jobs overall, while December's loss of 63,000 jobs on the more accurate not seasonally adjusted count (Household Data Table A-1) showed adult workers losing 288,000 for a less than joyous month.
Hispanic job seekers since the start of 2009 have gained 5,138,000 through the end of 2015, from 19,453,000 in 2009 to the latest 24,591,000 count. That’s just a tick off the 24,654,000 and 5,201,000 they’d gained according to December’s ESR release. Hispanic males’ 80.1% participation rate is nearly 9 percent higher than white males, who languish far behind at 71.5%. College graduates with a bachelor’s and higher, which includes master’s and doctoral degrees, have found and hold jobs at a 74.2% rate. Trailing only Hispanic males, foreign born males made up of LPRs with green cards, H-1B visa recipients, growing refugee and asylee numbers, and an undetermined percentage of undocumented migrants, have fared next best with a 77.9% participation rate. The foreign born male and female population, combined, have gained 4,336,000 jobs since their numbers were first counted and included in the BLS Employment Situation Report for January 2010.
Black or African Americans in Obama’s economy have gained 2,521,000 jobs since January 2009’s release, which showed 15,274,000 ahead of the latest December 17,795,000 count.
White workers displaced during Obama’s first term have found reemployment particularly tough to come by. With a miserable 748,000 jobs added over seven years, from 117,409,000 when Obama was inaugurated to 118,157,000 on December’s ESR, the disparity in numbers has shown an unemployed Hispanic male to be more than 20-times as likely to secure work than an unemployed white applicant. Perhaps surprisingly, blacks who appear incensed and angered by some imagined, or otherwise perceived, white privilege, have been about ten times as likely to find and secure employment since 2009, according to numbers and percentage in the populace, weighted with counts of the unemployed from the BLS.
Keep in mind, whites have been underrepresented on college campus admissions since the late 80s and 90s, ranging from between 62 to 64% of incoming freshmen each year during Obama’s tenure. All the same, the left’s so-called white privilege class still claims about 69% of the annual 2.77 million bachelor’s master’s and doctoral degrees conferred annually, combined. While massive grade inflation in secondary and higher education is inarguable, there appears to remain a minimum performance component that excludes the weakest students unprepared for college. Including post-secondary programs awarding professional credentials and certificates for employment apart from four-year degree granting college campuses, another 4.75 million new graduates and workforce hopefuls with higher education were churned out in 2015 only to face a deteriorating labor market, according to ETA counts of diminished hiring in 2015. Of the 34 million total degrees, professional credentials, certificates and awards granted since the spring of 2009, about 23.5 million are white young adults, so the ugly 748,000 jobs gained is in no way explainable by the kind of demographic shift some progressives and agenda driven minorities dismissively claim.
Perhaps looking back a few months might be necessary to determine whether Perez’ and the President’s claims of a healed economy hold water, since a clouded, less than clear impression could occur from just a month or two’s disappointing results. Back at the start of summer, June BLS data showed 16 to 17 year olds gain 269,000 jobs and 18 to 19 year olds claim another 340,000. Paired with June's loss of 56,000 jobs on Household Data Table A-1 seasonally adjusted figures, adult breadwinners lost more than 650,000 jobs across the first month of summer alone. During July the pattern continued with 16 to 17 year olds gaining another 211,000 jobs, while 18 to 19 year olds boosted their ranks of employed by 158,000 for a combined 369,000 jobs gained by American teens. Adult breadwinners lost almost a million jobs across the summer months.
At the end of summer into early fall, seniors gained a disproportionate share of jobs with the 65 and over workforce expanding by 36,000 in August and 81,000 in September, while working age Americans from 20 to 64 lost 853,000 jobs. Working age males lost 988,000 jobs, which was partially offset by women of working age gaining 202,000 jobs in September after dropping 67,000 in August. Interestingly, the teens, seniors and many part time job recipients in November and December won’t apply for unemployment after seasonal jobs end, because the majority of the “bread and circuses economy” and part time jobs economy participants Stockman refers to would be ineligible. Is the Administration’s claim of a healed economy seeming any clearer yet?
While the seasonally adjusted addition of 282,000 jobs was easily recognizable as a December gift from the BLS, the business birth and death cycle boost was less visible. The Establishment Survey business birth and death estimation is explained in Labor Department documents as follows.
“In a dynamic economy, firms are continually opening and closing. These two occurrences offset each other to some extent. That is, firms that are born replace firms that die. CES uses this to account for a large proportion of the employment associated with business births. This is accomplished by excluding business death units from the sample. Business deaths are not included in the sample-based link portion of the estimate, and the implicit imputation of their previous month’s employment is assumed to offset a portion of the employment associated with births.
“Most firms will not report that they have gone out of business; rather they simply cease reporting and are excluded from the link, as are all other nonrespondents. As a result, extensive follow-up with monthly nonrespondents to determine whether a company is out of business or simply didn’t respond is not required.
“Employment associated with business births will not exactly equal that associated with business deaths.”
From other CES procedural documents, tens of thousands of business births annually are anticipated above and beyond the fully supportable business deaths and calculated into the “dynamic economy” the BLS assumes to be in place. Apart from the Labor Department’s formal declaration of recession, an assumption of thousands of new businesses imaginatively birthed monthly generously hikes employment counts on top of the strategic holdover of nonresponding businesses and known business closures' counts, which continue to be included for up to two calendar quarters, resulting in a monthly boost of 200,000 or more phantom employed, on average, across a given year.
While there could be rare occasions the BLS would withhold a portion of the business birth-death cycle gift, it’s consistently and reliably included, adding nearly a quarter of a million jobs monthly on the assumption the United States is waltzing along in a “dynamic economy”. For the record, the BBDC boost was withdrawn from the start of 2008 through late summer 2009, until the recession had officially been declared over. Of course, much of that was based upon banking and Wall Street woes that were addressed in separate bailouts, including Obama’s ARRA stimulus package in his early months in Office.
Believing we’re experiencing a dynamic economy now seems a stretch to the vast majority of Americans who see and feel something quite different from what the Administration is selling. The second half of 2015 had three months where the not seasonally adjusted CPS employment counts reported losses. Including January’s start of the year drop with August, September and December’s monthly losses, which averaged 360,750 on the year, the four months on the wrong side of employment growth matched 2008’s four months of losses in February, September, November, and December. Rarely considered by those critical of the Bush economy were March and April’s 558,000 and 813,000 jobs gained, respectively, or June’s 722,000, which also obliterated the half-million mark. January was a fourth month that exceeded a quarter-million jobs growth in 2008, while July and October were more than respectable with 218,000 and 233,000 added during the summer and fall.
The Employment & Training Administration unemployment insurance counts collected from state employment offices nationwide have always been considered the benchmark for employment data, since actual counts from employers’ payroll records, along with weekly new and continuing job loss claim figures are understandably superior to limited survey data. This is especially true when survey data becomes almost unrecognizable as a result of seasonal adjustment high-ranking political appointees and BLS statisticians feel is their prerogative, maybe even responsibility, to paint for the American public. While there was a shift away from corrections and adjustments meant to recalibrate to the real counts specified in Labor Department documents around the middle of the last decade, a seeming refusal and thumbing of the nose at the more accurate counts traditionally relied upon for the adjustments has morphed into something entirely different. By 2008 through 2012 and beyond, not seasonally adjusted counts showing actual survey data gathered from respondents was progressively corrected during two or three months of the year to more nearly match statisticians’ seasonally adjusted estimates, lacking merit or basis. As a result, January, and to a lesser extent February, have become the least accurate months of the year for not seasonally adjusted data, since the start of the year is adjusted to realign more closely with seasonally adjusted counts and for the BLS’ stated purpose of factoring in population controls.
Since the end of 2007, no visible adjustment has been evident where correction, and correlation, to the ETA’s actual nationwide counts seemed warranted for survey data that appeared increasingly suspect. That the final calendar quarter of Bush’s Presidency showed a smallish, statistically insignificant loss of just 15,557 jobs on October through December 2008’s employers’ payroll counts on nationwide figures is a perfect example. Perez’ statement released to offer the Labor Secretary’s take on December’s employment figures shows how deluded he and the Administration remain by referencing 2.3 million private sector jobs lost in the three months ahead of Obama’s inauguration. The Administration is relying on contradictory numbers to the ETA’s real counts, which recorded only modest job losses until well into the second calendar quarter of 2009, ahead of losses topping a million-and-a-quarter jobs for four calendar quarters from July 2009 through summer 2010. The worst three-months of the recession proved to be the first quarter of 2010, with 1,829,860 jobs lost.
Obama’s Labor Department claim of 70 months consecutively with job growth extends back to March 2010 in the midst of the most severe job losses, according to real counts. In April through June 2010, employer’s payrolls showed 1,535,223 jobs lost. The hemorrhaging of jobs didn’t stop until the first quarter of 2011, when the current Administration’s first entry-level gain of 12,595 jobs through March was nearly indistinguishable from employers’ payroll record count change across the final calendar quarter of 2008 in statistical terms. Incredibly, the corrections written about and acknowledged for CPS and CES data intended to bring survey estimates in line with supportable real nationwide counts have been overlooked or ignored. In many cases, subtle, and occasionally not-so-subtle, corrections have been made internally at the Labor Department to real data, instead.
Once the recession was officially declared over, the business birth and death cycle kicked in for the back end of 2009, and nonresponding businesses were ignored in record numbers for the “dynamic economy” the Labor Department magically, and imaginatively, conjured up. Keep in mind, that strategy typically gifts about 200,000 to 225,000 jobs meant to boost employment numbers missing from nonresponders in an economy considered “dynamic” by the Labor Department, and adds to that phantom employees for the estimated 500 new businesses’ workforce change anticipated monthly. Along with the boast of 70 consecutive months of job growth on Perez’ and the President’s statements about the economy, it’s said with pride that not only has the streak reached record length, but it’s topped 200,000 jobs gained on average since the start of 2014. Did Perez or the President mention the “dynamic economy” they’re relying upon to let Americans in on the Labor Department’s seeming inside joke?
Beyond the loss of 13,000 jobs for November and December, combined, on the not seasonally adjusted employment count on Household Data Table A-1, the December CES figure for total nonfarm jobs showing a miserable 11,000 not seasonally adjusted count should give reason for pause. That included the “dynamic economy” gift tightly wrapped for Christmas, well ahead of the 281,000 jobs added for the BLS’ seasonally adjusted guesstimate.
The Labor Secretary’s statement offered a few seemingly promising real-world examples from segments of the economy showing promise and measured growth. In answer, I’ll share several more and respond to perhaps the most worthy comment referencing solid sales from the automotive industry
On final home sales figures released by the National Association of Realtors in 2015, November’s sales figures were down for the third month out of the last four, dropping 10.5% to a seasonally adjusted 4.76 million rate from a downwardly revised 5.32 million in October. After October’s decline -- the largest since July 2010 at 22.5% --sales have fallen 3.8% below a year earlier, showing the first year-over-year decline since September 2014. It’s probably just as important to note that initial sales figures were downwardly revised for five of the past six months as a hopeful, optimistic NAR in the business of selling homes tried to portray second-half 2015 home sales positively. Construction of new homes took a hit, outpacing the industry’s drop in overall home sales for the second-half of 2015.
Bloomberg posted an article with a statement from analysts at the Bank of America about rail traffic, which shows evidence of a worrisome manufacturing slowdown and potential economic trouble. “Railroad cargo in the U.S. dropped the most in six years in 2015, and things aren't looking good for the new year.
"We believe rail data may be signaling a warning for the broader economy," the release from Bank of America says. "Carloads have declined more than 5 percent in each of the past 11 weeks on a year-over-year basis. While one-off volume declines occur occasionally, they are generally followed by a recovery shortly thereafter. The current period of substantial and sustained weakness, including last week’s -10.1 percent decline, has not occurred since 2009."
Holiday season retail results were disappointing enough to lead to store closures at 40 locations for one of the nation’s largest, historically most respected, successful retailers. Macy’s announced 40 store closures just a week into January with a list that included layoffs of upwards of 4,800 employees. That nearly doubled the tally gathered in the three business days of the month after New Years at dailyjobcuts.com. Other large retailers, notably Nordstrom and Kohl’s, suffered from sales revenue drops in two of three quarters leading up to the holiday season, according to data released to the EPS. Each of the three major retailers released preliminary data indicating lackluster sales to outright poor performance across normally profitable months that included the year-end Christmas season.
Both Thomas Perez and Barack Obama referred to auto sales success in 2015. An 8.9% increase by December’s end was partially attributable to extra sales days through January 4th, including an extra weekend for sales tacked onto end of the year figures. Sales expectations for the month weren’t reached, and Toyota’s impressive performance, in particular, was boosted by a reported 79% of sales coming from large fleet contracts that have little to do with the economy and purchasing power of American workers the Administration suggests spent freely based upon a supposedly healed economy. For the year, passenger vehicle sales were down 3.2% overall, and 10.4% on domestic models, while light truck sales, including SUVs and crossover SUVs, were up enough to reach an 8.9% increase over 2014 sales figures. Note, year-end sales for two of the final three months of 2015 failed to meet expectations, which hardly seems sufficient to supplant the breadth of other disappointing economic data contradicting the Administration’s celebratory claims.
For anyone uncertain of whether the economy fits Obama’s and Perez’ pronouncement, a few final employment statistics might be worth including. The total cumulative count of 141,600,000 registrants for initial job loss claims through the end of 2015 should be disturbing to anyone. That comes from a weekly initial claims summary posted since early 2012 at RockyMountainPerspective.com, which organizes and includes ETA data from Report r539cy for each week of the current Administration. The 141.6 million jobs losers represent 105.67% of the 133,886,830 workers inherited by the Obama Administration in January 2009. The record setting job loss count is 11 million more than American workers suffered under Obama’s predecessor, applying comparable weeks and months of each Presidents workforce data
Of course, 2015 really was a big year for Obama and American workers, though, because data released by the ETA April 30th, 2015 showed the Administration finally topped the workforce count of 133,886,830 in place when Obama took Office in 2009. Early in Obama’s 76th month, the labor force finally broke even from the 8,326,764 jobs lost during Democrat Supermajority rule in Washington from January 2009 through January 2011. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid stood solidly behind newly elected President Obama who was given a blank check, as it were, from the 111th Congress. Pelosi and Reid took control of their respective chambers of Congress in 2007, which started much of the contention and obstruction ahead of Democrats gaining a Supermajority for two years beginning in 2009.
Data released from the ETA’s quarterly employers’ payroll counts showed 134,074,626 working Americans by early April, which meant the Obama Administration was finally out from under historic job losses suffered from 2009 through early 2011. Perhaps deserving of credit for winning the race I referred to in a Rocky Mountain Perspective post from spring of 2015, Obama’s moribund, longsuffering economy reached a positive count six weeks ahead of amassing cumulative job loss claims in excess of the workforce inherited from Bush, according to the ETA Advance Report released June 13, 2015. The 133,998,000 distinct new claimants in sum after job loss counts reported June 13th showed America’s workforce shed 100% of Bush’s final 133,886,830 labor force participants sometime during the morning of June 10th. Give credit where credit is due.
Through the end of 2015, the slowed, and slowing, pace of job hires has hammered Americans in search of employment by adding just 1,687,978 jobs 84 months into an economy unlike any the nation has suffered since World War II, by DOL counts. To be fair, when ETA figures are released on January 23rd, that figure is likely to vault above two million at what might reach two-and-a-quarter million jobs gained heading into the President’s final year. Perhaps for perspective, it’s worth reminding that Bush’s ETA employers’ payroll count showed workforce growth of 7,043,293, which was just over 5.5% growth from the 126,843,537 he inherited from Bill Clinton. To reach comparable growth, the Obama economy would need to top 7,434,389 jobs added, or jump by a seemingly impossible 5,109,389 beyond the estimate applied here, which was rounded up from the Household Survey’s 2,513,000 jobs added figure and the Establishment Survey’s similar 2,593,000 estimate of 2015 job growth. The latter CES figure includes the “dynamic economy” monthly gift so generously bestowed by the Labor Department. Frankly, I’ll be surprised if the Obama Administration leaves Office with more than 5 million jobs added, which would be just 3.7% of the economy he and the Democrat Supermajority were handed in 2009.
For those who’ve made it through the entry-level math lesson presented here, including explanations about Department of Labor workforce data from both the BLS and ETA, I’ll offer support for the dramatic slowdown in hiring that’s taken place overall since Thomas Perez’ installation July 23, 2013. The basic math goes like this: If carefully counted, accurate claims after job losses are 10 million in a given year, while 2 million jobs are reported as positive job growth, the number of job hires would calculate to 12 million overall. The 10 million jobs lost must be replaced before there’s positive job growth, by definition. Now, assuming job loss claims fall to 7.5 million with healthy drops in weekly claims, 2.5 million jobs added doesn’t reach the total number of job hires made in the earlier year. It would top out at 10 million job hires, overall, according to the kind of data collected and released by the Employment & Training Administration on its real nationwide counts.
Some of you understood the premise when it was explained earlier and are comfortable and confident in your math skills. My hope is you’re not too irritated with the simplification, because some of the electorate may need it to understand the dramatic slowdown that’s taken place in hiring over each of the past two years. In fact, the 16,987,396 hires recognizable across Obama’s seventh year in Office is millions below every prior year since the turn of the millennium.
I’ll add a chart to illustrate years since Bush was President which helps explain the Administration’s transparent workforce fiction. For the year, the ETA recorded 14,387,396 initial claims for unemployment across 2015. Then, using the aforementioned predictors from CPS and CES counts, I’ll give the Obama Administration its highest number of jobs gained at 2,600,000. Together, the figures add up to 16,987,396. The next slowest year for hires with Obama in Office was 2014, again due in large measure to a dramatic post-Perez as Labor Secretary drop. With a solid 15,927,761 initial job loss claims filed in 2014, combined with the 2,458,795 increase on employers’ payrolls according to the ETA, 2014 saw 18,386,556, or about 1.4 million more job hires made across the year than 2015.
The worst year for job hires during the Bush Presidency was pretty comparable to Obama’s 2014. In 2004, the nation was well on its way to healing from the World Trade Center attack that shaped a fledgling Presidency just seven-and-a-half months in. Job losses tapered off for three consecutive years after 2003, but solid hiring growth lagged a year behind. In 2004, job loss claims dropped 3.65 million to 17,643,394, while job growth was modest at 391,524 after separating two-plus-years from the tragedy that took almost 3,000 lives and inflicted economic calamity world-wide. The sum total of hires made in Bush’s fourth year in Office was 18,034,918, about 350,000 shy of Obama’s hires recorded in 2014. Of course, as a percentage of the smaller economy at the time, the two were virtually identical. Perhaps surprisingly for some, even 2008 bested 2015 hiring numbers by nearly 5.2 million, with 22,160,170 hires recognizable to the ETA from the Department of Labor’s real nationwide count.
My hope is the nation doesn’t suffer too many willing subjects like those mentioned in Hans Christian Anderson’s the Emperor’s New Robe. Political correctness is damaging on so many levels and has impacted too many Americans in ways they shouldn’t feel they need to endure. Nevertheless, the reality is many on the left, and occasionally a few on the right, hold fast to the mantra “my guy said it, so don’t challenge the narrative with facts”.
In this case, the narrative I’ve chosen to address isn’t exactly tough to see as Obama Administration deception grown stale. But if you don’t recognize workforce and economic fiction for what it is, more power to you. Please, under all circumstances, stay away from voting booths, though, for the sake of the nation and Americans who deserve real, not imagined, recovery.
During a week Star Wars regained its position atop the box office with “The Force Awakens”, decades after the original trilogy dominated the industry, science fiction has vaulted to the top of the big screen and mostly dominates new TV series as well. Americans seem to love fiction and appear enthralled with story tellers able to weave an enticing tale. Increasingly, Barack Obama believes his version of America might be as impressive and other-worldly inspired as the likes of JJ Abrams, George Lucas and the imaginative Steven Spielberg.
Never mind that the reality for scores of millions of hurting Americans makes the tale woven by Labor Secretary Thomas Perez for the Administration more akin to workforce fiction than the obviously popular science fiction. Maybe some Americans will appreciate that too.
Perez’ odd, but enthusiastic, cheerleading releases for Department of Labor blogs and the monthly Employment Situation Report ignore all but a handful of results from the 550 metrics surveyed for the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the Household Survey, and subtle internal adjustments that gifted about a half million jobs sans support on the Establishment Survey (CES) last month. Between 200,000 and a quarter-million jobs are added based on the assumption that we’re in a “Dynamic Economy” according to the Labor Department each and every month for the Establishment Survey’s total nonfarm and total private labor force estimates on Table B-1. Perhaps, as importantly, BLS documents explain the 90% confidence level indicates it’s 90% likely that the estimated figure would come within ±105,000 to 110,000. For example, in November, that means the originally estimated 211,000 jobs added, in statisticians terms, was really just 90% likely to have been 101,000 or greater. I’ll explain more about the birth and death cycle that gifts upwards of 200,000 jobs monthly to the media’s commonly used counts later.
During the month of December, the total nonfarm count was generously hiked 281,000 phantom jobs on the seasonally adjusted figure that’s typically all that appears in media reports. Statisticians at the Labor Department are given leeway to adjust calculations based upon seasonal variations, weather related occurrences, and seeming aberrations on results that differ significantly from what was anticipated. Former Director of the Office of Management and Budget, David Stockman, explained the folly used internally to arrive at figures supportive of self-serving Washington elites, Wall Street and bankers’ agendas admirably in an article penned last week. “Stockman: Only 11,000 Jobs Last Month, Not 292,000” is a worthy read and will be linked here.
http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/DavidStockman/jobs-labor-market-hiring-workers/2016/01/09/id/708830/
While expanding on former BLS Commissioner Keith Hall’s comments just months after leaving the DOL’s statistics division helm where, in late 2012, Hall called the BLS figures “deeply flawed”, Stockman leaves out details that show more clearly yet how inaccurate the data often is. Last February, Gallup CEO, Jim Clifton, created a media firestorm by calling the 5.6% unemployment rate “The Big Lie” in a personal statement capably supported in print, as well as in person during broadcast media interviews. Among other highly regarded, brave business leaders, Jack Welch called the figures politically-driven and fabricated in the last presidential election when monthly unemployment rates dropped by .2, then .3% in individual months leading up to November’s election. Unfortunately, none offered the support available from DOL and BLS internal documents which appears here along with important observations from the past month and second-half of 2015’s Employment Situation Reports.
In brief, before the Employment Situation Report (ESR) is dissected in detail, another 284,000 Americans stricken from the labor force spiked December’s Not in Labor Force count from 94,407,000 to 94,691,000 on the not seasonally adjusted figure. That’s paired with a loss of 63,000 jobs on the CPS not seasonally adjusted Household Data count of the employed from 149,766,000 in November to 149,703,000 in December. Reported, instead, was a surprisingly strong 485,000 gain on seasonally adjusted employment for December. Of course, for those paying attention, that trick's awfully tired and fails in terms of imagination. A month earlier, the not seasonally adjusted job growth in November was a miserable 50,000 on the Household Survey, while 244,000 were reported to have been added to the workforce on BLS seasonally adjusted estimates. Among the more troublesome aspects of November’s ESR that eluded the media was 1,107,000 part time jobs added in November, according to HD Table A-8 Persons at Work Part Time not seasonally adjusted counts. Since only 50,000 jobs were reported to have been added by CPS survey respondents, it's clear roughly 1,057,000 full time jobs ended in November and about a million adult breadwinners lost their jobs. The quality of jobs made the gain of 476,000 workers with less than a high school diploma all-too predictable for the month.
It’s important to note that what appears without fail in media reports is seasonally adjusted data that's oftentimes contradicted by less manipulated statistics. The Labor Department's own admission of which figures are more accurate and representative seems worth including, as a result. The DOL's published explanation of Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey words it thusly; "...it is important to note that seasonal adjustment is merely an approximation based on past experience. Seasonally adjusted estimates have a broader margin of possible error than do the original data on which they are based, because they not only are subject to sampling and other errors but also are affected by the uncertainties of the seasonal adjustment process itself." One doesn't have to have post-graduate credentials in math or degrees in the field to recognize the original survey responses collected and reported as not seasonally adjusted should carry more weight.
It might be useful to include some basics about the process described in the BLS’ Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey. Chapter 1 describes the sample pool as about 72,000 households from 754 primary sampling units, or PSUs, in strategically selected geographic locations. Of the 72,000 housing units assigned for data collection, about 60,000 are occupied and thus eligible for interview. Of the 60,000, it’s anticipated that 8% or more won’t respond in a typical month, but that assumes a healthy economy with 5 to 6% unemployment. First interviews are normally conducted with an in person visit, before telephone calls address months two through four for occupied, responding households. Thereafter, the strategically selected households are rotated out of the survey before being revisited for four more interviews eight months later.
In highly volatile conditions, and where unemployment exceeded 5 to 6%, the BLS’ targeted 90% response rate wasn’t proving as reliably achievable as CPS documents seemed to suggest. Internal pressure to reach the threshold led to about a dozen USCB survey workers being identified by coworkers for falsifying data and turning in unusually high numbers of responses in 2010 and 2011. A single staffer whose numbers stood out admitted to creating and assigning jobs to non-respondents while contending he and the other survey takers were instructed to do so by superiors determined to reach the critical 90% response threshold. No disciplinary action was administered for the deception, and the remaining coworkers who’d turned in more improbable numbers and rates of response weren’t investigated, according to internal reports.
The important takeaway from the CPS parameters is that, typically, responses are gathered from somewhere between 52,000 and 55,000 respondents. Perhaps some obvious limitations of data reliability can be grasped by recognizing the ratio of households in the CPS survey at one’s neighborhood level would fall between two and three disparate units per zip code nationwide, on average. In actuality, the survey claims to select four from the chosen PSUs giving more representation to adjacent, highly populated areas. As a result, extensive demographic figures paint the nation’s employment picture with something like an artist’s brush, while the canvas could be the entirety of the devastated World Trade Center grounds.
Let’s get back to more December and second-half of 2015 actual employment results. Much of it will be eye-opening, including the pace of hiring in 2015, which has been on a downward slide, decreasing by 4,405,604 new employee hires since early 2013, according to Employment & Training Administration (ETA) counts. In 2015 alone, hiring activity fell 1,399,160, which was, without a doubt, less painful than 2010’s 4,041,729 hiring squeeze but fourth worst this millennium behind 2004 and 2013 cutbacks of 2,559,385 and 2,003,308 from prior year numbers, respectively. While the year-over-year comparison showed 2010 dropping more than last year, the actual number of hires, at 19,210,088 in 2010, recorded 2,220,692 more than employers’ payroll records posted for calendar year 2015. Since net job gains are defined by hires (employment growth) in excess of jobs lost, the reported drop in weekly unemployment claims the Administration has boasted about since Thomas Perez’ installation as Labor Secretary July 23, 2013, has gone unmatched with anything close to corresponding job gains. From the time of Perez’ swearing in, the loss of hires, with life-changing implications for the gainfully employed, now exceeds 4 million.
A review of Household Data Tables A-1 through A-16 yielded some key not seasonally adjusted BLS Employment Situation Report results for December beyond the cringe worthy NiLF spike to 94,691,000 and respondents’ reported 63,000 jobs lost for the month. Of the 94.7 million, 56,272,000 are of working age – less than 65 – and another 3,666,000 are considered marginally attached or discouraged workers who aren’t included amongst the unemployed or NiLF. Perez’ and the President’s tale of an economy worth celebrating notwithstanding, the majority demographic, who self-identify as white, lost 346,000 jobs during December. While adult white males lost 239,000 jobs and adult females dropped 264,000 more, white teens age 16 to 19 partly mitigated the loss with 157,000 jobs gained.
Showing more promise, black or African-Americans gained 113,000 jobs in December with adult males claiming 79,000 jobs, adult females holding mostly steady with a loss of 7,000, and black teens 16 to 19 years-old gaining 39,000 more. Asian workers added 78,000 jobs in December, while Hispanics had an atypical month with a modest 63,000 jobs lost on not seasonally adjusted counts. The result was so uncharacteristic for the demographic that's gained the majority of jobs during Obama's tenure at almost 5.2 million, the BLS' seasonally adjusted figure contradicted the unusual loss with a gain of 71,000. Hispanic men mostly held steady with a statistically insignificant loss of 26,000, while Hispanic women exited December's workforce to the tune of 111,000. Like their counterparts, Hispanic teens were the big winners gaining 73,000 jobs for the final month of the year. Collectively, teens gained 225,000 jobs overall, while December's loss of 63,000 jobs on the more accurate not seasonally adjusted count (Household Data Table A-1) showed adult workers losing 288,000 for a less than joyous month.
Hispanic job seekers since the start of 2009 have gained 5,138,000 through the end of 2015, from 19,453,000 in 2009 to the latest 24,591,000 count. That’s just a tick off the 24,654,000 and 5,201,000 they’d gained according to December’s ESR release. Hispanic males’ 80.1% participation rate is nearly 9 percent higher than white males, who languish far behind at 71.5%. College graduates with a bachelor’s and higher, which includes master’s and doctoral degrees, have found and hold jobs at a 74.2% rate. Trailing only Hispanic males, foreign born males made up of LPRs with green cards, H-1B visa recipients, growing refugee and asylee numbers, and an undetermined percentage of undocumented migrants, have fared next best with a 77.9% participation rate. The foreign born male and female population, combined, have gained 4,336,000 jobs since their numbers were first counted and included in the BLS Employment Situation Report for January 2010.
Black or African Americans in Obama’s economy have gained 2,521,000 jobs since January 2009’s release, which showed 15,274,000 ahead of the latest December 17,795,000 count.
White workers displaced during Obama’s first term have found reemployment particularly tough to come by. With a miserable 748,000 jobs added over seven years, from 117,409,000 when Obama was inaugurated to 118,157,000 on December’s ESR, the disparity in numbers has shown an unemployed Hispanic male to be more than 20-times as likely to secure work than an unemployed white applicant. Perhaps surprisingly, blacks who appear incensed and angered by some imagined, or otherwise perceived, white privilege, have been about ten times as likely to find and secure employment since 2009, according to numbers and percentage in the populace, weighted with counts of the unemployed from the BLS.
Keep in mind, whites have been underrepresented on college campus admissions since the late 80s and 90s, ranging from between 62 to 64% of incoming freshmen each year during Obama’s tenure. All the same, the left’s so-called white privilege class still claims about 69% of the annual 2.77 million bachelor’s master’s and doctoral degrees conferred annually, combined. While massive grade inflation in secondary and higher education is inarguable, there appears to remain a minimum performance component that excludes the weakest students unprepared for college. Including post-secondary programs awarding professional credentials and certificates for employment apart from four-year degree granting college campuses, another 4.75 million new graduates and workforce hopefuls with higher education were churned out in 2015 only to face a deteriorating labor market, according to ETA counts of diminished hiring in 2015. Of the 34 million total degrees, professional credentials, certificates and awards granted since the spring of 2009, about 23.5 million are white young adults, so the ugly 748,000 jobs gained is in no way explainable by the kind of demographic shift some progressives and agenda driven minorities dismissively claim.
Perhaps looking back a few months might be necessary to determine whether Perez’ and the President’s claims of a healed economy hold water, since a clouded, less than clear impression could occur from just a month or two’s disappointing results. Back at the start of summer, June BLS data showed 16 to 17 year olds gain 269,000 jobs and 18 to 19 year olds claim another 340,000. Paired with June's loss of 56,000 jobs on Household Data Table A-1 seasonally adjusted figures, adult breadwinners lost more than 650,000 jobs across the first month of summer alone. During July the pattern continued with 16 to 17 year olds gaining another 211,000 jobs, while 18 to 19 year olds boosted their ranks of employed by 158,000 for a combined 369,000 jobs gained by American teens. Adult breadwinners lost almost a million jobs across the summer months.
At the end of summer into early fall, seniors gained a disproportionate share of jobs with the 65 and over workforce expanding by 36,000 in August and 81,000 in September, while working age Americans from 20 to 64 lost 853,000 jobs. Working age males lost 988,000 jobs, which was partially offset by women of working age gaining 202,000 jobs in September after dropping 67,000 in August. Interestingly, the teens, seniors and many part time job recipients in November and December won’t apply for unemployment after seasonal jobs end, because the majority of the “bread and circuses economy” and part time jobs economy participants Stockman refers to would be ineligible. Is the Administration’s claim of a healed economy seeming any clearer yet?
While the seasonally adjusted addition of 282,000 jobs was easily recognizable as a December gift from the BLS, the business birth and death cycle boost was less visible. The Establishment Survey business birth and death estimation is explained in Labor Department documents as follows.
“In a dynamic economy, firms are continually opening and closing. These two occurrences offset each other to some extent. That is, firms that are born replace firms that die. CES uses this to account for a large proportion of the employment associated with business births. This is accomplished by excluding business death units from the sample. Business deaths are not included in the sample-based link portion of the estimate, and the implicit imputation of their previous month’s employment is assumed to offset a portion of the employment associated with births.
“Most firms will not report that they have gone out of business; rather they simply cease reporting and are excluded from the link, as are all other nonrespondents. As a result, extensive follow-up with monthly nonrespondents to determine whether a company is out of business or simply didn’t respond is not required.
“Employment associated with business births will not exactly equal that associated with business deaths.”
From other CES procedural documents, tens of thousands of business births annually are anticipated above and beyond the fully supportable business deaths and calculated into the “dynamic economy” the BLS assumes to be in place. Apart from the Labor Department’s formal declaration of recession, an assumption of thousands of new businesses imaginatively birthed monthly generously hikes employment counts on top of the strategic holdover of nonresponding businesses and known business closures' counts, which continue to be included for up to two calendar quarters, resulting in a monthly boost of 200,000 or more phantom employed, on average, across a given year.
While there could be rare occasions the BLS would withhold a portion of the business birth-death cycle gift, it’s consistently and reliably included, adding nearly a quarter of a million jobs monthly on the assumption the United States is waltzing along in a “dynamic economy”. For the record, the BBDC boost was withdrawn from the start of 2008 through late summer 2009, until the recession had officially been declared over. Of course, much of that was based upon banking and Wall Street woes that were addressed in separate bailouts, including Obama’s ARRA stimulus package in his early months in Office.
Believing we’re experiencing a dynamic economy now seems a stretch to the vast majority of Americans who see and feel something quite different from what the Administration is selling. The second half of 2015 had three months where the not seasonally adjusted CPS employment counts reported losses. Including January’s start of the year drop with August, September and December’s monthly losses, which averaged 360,750 on the year, the four months on the wrong side of employment growth matched 2008’s four months of losses in February, September, November, and December. Rarely considered by those critical of the Bush economy were March and April’s 558,000 and 813,000 jobs gained, respectively, or June’s 722,000, which also obliterated the half-million mark. January was a fourth month that exceeded a quarter-million jobs growth in 2008, while July and October were more than respectable with 218,000 and 233,000 added during the summer and fall.
The Employment & Training Administration unemployment insurance counts collected from state employment offices nationwide have always been considered the benchmark for employment data, since actual counts from employers’ payroll records, along with weekly new and continuing job loss claim figures are understandably superior to limited survey data. This is especially true when survey data becomes almost unrecognizable as a result of seasonal adjustment high-ranking political appointees and BLS statisticians feel is their prerogative, maybe even responsibility, to paint for the American public. While there was a shift away from corrections and adjustments meant to recalibrate to the real counts specified in Labor Department documents around the middle of the last decade, a seeming refusal and thumbing of the nose at the more accurate counts traditionally relied upon for the adjustments has morphed into something entirely different. By 2008 through 2012 and beyond, not seasonally adjusted counts showing actual survey data gathered from respondents was progressively corrected during two or three months of the year to more nearly match statisticians’ seasonally adjusted estimates, lacking merit or basis. As a result, January, and to a lesser extent February, have become the least accurate months of the year for not seasonally adjusted data, since the start of the year is adjusted to realign more closely with seasonally adjusted counts and for the BLS’ stated purpose of factoring in population controls.
Since the end of 2007, no visible adjustment has been evident where correction, and correlation, to the ETA’s actual nationwide counts seemed warranted for survey data that appeared increasingly suspect. That the final calendar quarter of Bush’s Presidency showed a smallish, statistically insignificant loss of just 15,557 jobs on October through December 2008’s employers’ payroll counts on nationwide figures is a perfect example. Perez’ statement released to offer the Labor Secretary’s take on December’s employment figures shows how deluded he and the Administration remain by referencing 2.3 million private sector jobs lost in the three months ahead of Obama’s inauguration. The Administration is relying on contradictory numbers to the ETA’s real counts, which recorded only modest job losses until well into the second calendar quarter of 2009, ahead of losses topping a million-and-a-quarter jobs for four calendar quarters from July 2009 through summer 2010. The worst three-months of the recession proved to be the first quarter of 2010, with 1,829,860 jobs lost.
Obama’s Labor Department claim of 70 months consecutively with job growth extends back to March 2010 in the midst of the most severe job losses, according to real counts. In April through June 2010, employer’s payrolls showed 1,535,223 jobs lost. The hemorrhaging of jobs didn’t stop until the first quarter of 2011, when the current Administration’s first entry-level gain of 12,595 jobs through March was nearly indistinguishable from employers’ payroll record count change across the final calendar quarter of 2008 in statistical terms. Incredibly, the corrections written about and acknowledged for CPS and CES data intended to bring survey estimates in line with supportable real nationwide counts have been overlooked or ignored. In many cases, subtle, and occasionally not-so-subtle, corrections have been made internally at the Labor Department to real data, instead.
Once the recession was officially declared over, the business birth and death cycle kicked in for the back end of 2009, and nonresponding businesses were ignored in record numbers for the “dynamic economy” the Labor Department magically, and imaginatively, conjured up. Keep in mind, that strategy typically gifts about 200,000 to 225,000 jobs meant to boost employment numbers missing from nonresponders in an economy considered “dynamic” by the Labor Department, and adds to that phantom employees for the estimated 500 new businesses’ workforce change anticipated monthly. Along with the boast of 70 consecutive months of job growth on Perez’ and the President’s statements about the economy, it’s said with pride that not only has the streak reached record length, but it’s topped 200,000 jobs gained on average since the start of 2014. Did Perez or the President mention the “dynamic economy” they’re relying upon to let Americans in on the Labor Department’s seeming inside joke?
Beyond the loss of 13,000 jobs for November and December, combined, on the not seasonally adjusted employment count on Household Data Table A-1, the December CES figure for total nonfarm jobs showing a miserable 11,000 not seasonally adjusted count should give reason for pause. That included the “dynamic economy” gift tightly wrapped for Christmas, well ahead of the 281,000 jobs added for the BLS’ seasonally adjusted guesstimate.
The Labor Secretary’s statement offered a few seemingly promising real-world examples from segments of the economy showing promise and measured growth. In answer, I’ll share several more and respond to perhaps the most worthy comment referencing solid sales from the automotive industry
On final home sales figures released by the National Association of Realtors in 2015, November’s sales figures were down for the third month out of the last four, dropping 10.5% to a seasonally adjusted 4.76 million rate from a downwardly revised 5.32 million in October. After October’s decline -- the largest since July 2010 at 22.5% --sales have fallen 3.8% below a year earlier, showing the first year-over-year decline since September 2014. It’s probably just as important to note that initial sales figures were downwardly revised for five of the past six months as a hopeful, optimistic NAR in the business of selling homes tried to portray second-half 2015 home sales positively. Construction of new homes took a hit, outpacing the industry’s drop in overall home sales for the second-half of 2015.
Bloomberg posted an article with a statement from analysts at the Bank of America about rail traffic, which shows evidence of a worrisome manufacturing slowdown and potential economic trouble. “Railroad cargo in the U.S. dropped the most in six years in 2015, and things aren't looking good for the new year.
"We believe rail data may be signaling a warning for the broader economy," the release from Bank of America says. "Carloads have declined more than 5 percent in each of the past 11 weeks on a year-over-year basis. While one-off volume declines occur occasionally, they are generally followed by a recovery shortly thereafter. The current period of substantial and sustained weakness, including last week’s -10.1 percent decline, has not occurred since 2009."
Holiday season retail results were disappointing enough to lead to store closures at 40 locations for one of the nation’s largest, historically most respected, successful retailers. Macy’s announced 40 store closures just a week into January with a list that included layoffs of upwards of 4,800 employees. That nearly doubled the tally gathered in the three business days of the month after New Years at dailyjobcuts.com. Other large retailers, notably Nordstrom and Kohl’s, suffered from sales revenue drops in two of three quarters leading up to the holiday season, according to data released to the EPS. Each of the three major retailers released preliminary data indicating lackluster sales to outright poor performance across normally profitable months that included the year-end Christmas season.
Both Thomas Perez and Barack Obama referred to auto sales success in 2015. An 8.9% increase by December’s end was partially attributable to extra sales days through January 4th, including an extra weekend for sales tacked onto end of the year figures. Sales expectations for the month weren’t reached, and Toyota’s impressive performance, in particular, was boosted by a reported 79% of sales coming from large fleet contracts that have little to do with the economy and purchasing power of American workers the Administration suggests spent freely based upon a supposedly healed economy. For the year, passenger vehicle sales were down 3.2% overall, and 10.4% on domestic models, while light truck sales, including SUVs and crossover SUVs, were up enough to reach an 8.9% increase over 2014 sales figures. Note, year-end sales for two of the final three months of 2015 failed to meet expectations, which hardly seems sufficient to supplant the breadth of other disappointing economic data contradicting the Administration’s celebratory claims.
For anyone uncertain of whether the economy fits Obama’s and Perez’ pronouncement, a few final employment statistics might be worth including. The total cumulative count of 141,600,000 registrants for initial job loss claims through the end of 2015 should be disturbing to anyone. That comes from a weekly initial claims summary posted since early 2012 at RockyMountainPerspective.com, which organizes and includes ETA data from Report r539cy for each week of the current Administration. The 141.6 million jobs losers represent 105.67% of the 133,886,830 workers inherited by the Obama Administration in January 2009. The record setting job loss count is 11 million more than American workers suffered under Obama’s predecessor, applying comparable weeks and months of each Presidents workforce data
Of course, 2015 really was a big year for Obama and American workers, though, because data released by the ETA April 30th, 2015 showed the Administration finally topped the workforce count of 133,886,830 in place when Obama took Office in 2009. Early in Obama’s 76th month, the labor force finally broke even from the 8,326,764 jobs lost during Democrat Supermajority rule in Washington from January 2009 through January 2011. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid stood solidly behind newly elected President Obama who was given a blank check, as it were, from the 111th Congress. Pelosi and Reid took control of their respective chambers of Congress in 2007, which started much of the contention and obstruction ahead of Democrats gaining a Supermajority for two years beginning in 2009.
Data released from the ETA’s quarterly employers’ payroll counts showed 134,074,626 working Americans by early April, which meant the Obama Administration was finally out from under historic job losses suffered from 2009 through early 2011. Perhaps deserving of credit for winning the race I referred to in a Rocky Mountain Perspective post from spring of 2015, Obama’s moribund, longsuffering economy reached a positive count six weeks ahead of amassing cumulative job loss claims in excess of the workforce inherited from Bush, according to the ETA Advance Report released June 13, 2015. The 133,998,000 distinct new claimants in sum after job loss counts reported June 13th showed America’s workforce shed 100% of Bush’s final 133,886,830 labor force participants sometime during the morning of June 10th. Give credit where credit is due.
Through the end of 2015, the slowed, and slowing, pace of job hires has hammered Americans in search of employment by adding just 1,687,978 jobs 84 months into an economy unlike any the nation has suffered since World War II, by DOL counts. To be fair, when ETA figures are released on January 23rd, that figure is likely to vault above two million at what might reach two-and-a-quarter million jobs gained heading into the President’s final year. Perhaps for perspective, it’s worth reminding that Bush’s ETA employers’ payroll count showed workforce growth of 7,043,293, which was just over 5.5% growth from the 126,843,537 he inherited from Bill Clinton. To reach comparable growth, the Obama economy would need to top 7,434,389 jobs added, or jump by a seemingly impossible 5,109,389 beyond the estimate applied here, which was rounded up from the Household Survey’s 2,513,000 jobs added figure and the Establishment Survey’s similar 2,593,000 estimate of 2015 job growth. The latter CES figure includes the “dynamic economy” monthly gift so generously bestowed by the Labor Department. Frankly, I’ll be surprised if the Obama Administration leaves Office with more than 5 million jobs added, which would be just 3.7% of the economy he and the Democrat Supermajority were handed in 2009.
For those who’ve made it through the entry-level math lesson presented here, including explanations about Department of Labor workforce data from both the BLS and ETA, I’ll offer support for the dramatic slowdown in hiring that’s taken place overall since Thomas Perez’ installation July 23, 2013. The basic math goes like this: If carefully counted, accurate claims after job losses are 10 million in a given year, while 2 million jobs are reported as positive job growth, the number of job hires would calculate to 12 million overall. The 10 million jobs lost must be replaced before there’s positive job growth, by definition. Now, assuming job loss claims fall to 7.5 million with healthy drops in weekly claims, 2.5 million jobs added doesn’t reach the total number of job hires made in the earlier year. It would top out at 10 million job hires, overall, according to the kind of data collected and released by the Employment & Training Administration on its real nationwide counts.
Some of you understood the premise when it was explained earlier and are comfortable and confident in your math skills. My hope is you’re not too irritated with the simplification, because some of the electorate may need it to understand the dramatic slowdown that’s taken place in hiring over each of the past two years. In fact, the 16,987,396 hires recognizable across Obama’s seventh year in Office is millions below every prior year since the turn of the millennium.
I’ll add a chart to illustrate years since Bush was President which helps explain the Administration’s transparent workforce fiction. For the year, the ETA recorded 14,387,396 initial claims for unemployment across 2015. Then, using the aforementioned predictors from CPS and CES counts, I’ll give the Obama Administration its highest number of jobs gained at 2,600,000. Together, the figures add up to 16,987,396. The next slowest year for hires with Obama in Office was 2014, again due in large measure to a dramatic post-Perez as Labor Secretary drop. With a solid 15,927,761 initial job loss claims filed in 2014, combined with the 2,458,795 increase on employers’ payrolls according to the ETA, 2014 saw 18,386,556, or about 1.4 million more job hires made across the year than 2015.
The worst year for job hires during the Bush Presidency was pretty comparable to Obama’s 2014. In 2004, the nation was well on its way to healing from the World Trade Center attack that shaped a fledgling Presidency just seven-and-a-half months in. Job losses tapered off for three consecutive years after 2003, but solid hiring growth lagged a year behind. In 2004, job loss claims dropped 3.65 million to 17,643,394, while job growth was modest at 391,524 after separating two-plus-years from the tragedy that took almost 3,000 lives and inflicted economic calamity world-wide. The sum total of hires made in Bush’s fourth year in Office was 18,034,918, about 350,000 shy of Obama’s hires recorded in 2014. Of course, as a percentage of the smaller economy at the time, the two were virtually identical. Perhaps surprisingly for some, even 2008 bested 2015 hiring numbers by nearly 5.2 million, with 22,160,170 hires recognizable to the ETA from the Department of Labor’s real nationwide count.
My hope is the nation doesn’t suffer too many willing subjects like those mentioned in Hans Christian Anderson’s the Emperor’s New Robe. Political correctness is damaging on so many levels and has impacted too many Americans in ways they shouldn’t feel they need to endure. Nevertheless, the reality is many on the left, and occasionally a few on the right, hold fast to the mantra “my guy said it, so don’t challenge the narrative with facts”.
In this case, the narrative I’ve chosen to address isn’t exactly tough to see as Obama Administration deception grown stale. But if you don’t recognize workforce and economic fiction for what it is, more power to you. Please, under all circumstances, stay away from voting booths, though, for the sake of the nation and Americans who deserve real, not imagined, recovery.
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