95 million Not in Labor Force & 678k part time holiday jobs drop November UE to 4.6%
The Obama Administration wants Americans to believe Christmas has come early and prosperity not seen for nine years has descended upon millions of holdouts from his Administration’s unprecedented 154 million first-time claimants for unemployment after job losses, along with anyone wanting gainful employment from the record high 95,089,000 relegated to Not in Labor Force counts. Perhaps not altogether surprisingly, reality has a way of smacking many upside the head, especially when they’ve been disenfranchised having suffered abject futility over attempts to return to anything approaching middle class breadwinner jobs. Traditionally around this time of year, fairy tales beguile starry-eyed children and, occasionally, longer-in-tooth adult dreamers who yearn for a whimsical never, never land alternate reality. At least the President and his minions can hope more than just his most radically devoted sycophants fall into the latter category. That’s become necessary, if one is to believe the headline numbers drawn from the latest Employment Situation Report.
The figure drawing the most attention is a claimed drop in unemployment during November from 4.9% to 4.6%. Unfortunately, the return to numbers not seen since 2006-2007 is largely explainable by looking at who got the meager number of jobs last month and the ruthless replacement of full time work with part time employment that saw November slash 628,000 full time positions, while employers added 678,000 part time jobs. That was on the heels of part time employment increasing by 1,338,000 in September and 497,000 in October. Household Data Table A-9 showed the part time spike replacing nearly 2 million full time workers over the past three months alone, after September’s loss of 1,164,000 full time employed, then October’s drop of another 140,000. The mind boggling 2,513,000 part time jobs added from September onward has averaged a shocking 837,670 entry-level, mostly minimum wage jobs monthly since the end of summer.
Thus far, 2016 has been brutal for adults seeking breadwinner jobs. Given media reports echoing Labor Secretary Thomas Perez’ comments for release with November’s Employment Situation Report, there must be someone gaining jobs, mustn’t there? After all, the .3% drop in the unemployment rate now shows the Obama Administration at a mid-4% range, like that recorded across the first three calendar quarters of the Bush Administration and all of 2006-2007. In fact, the Bush economy recorded 34 months at 4.9% or less, and another 9 at 5.0% for roughly half of Obama’s predecessor’s time in Office. The latest 9.3% U6 rate in November was bested 51 out of 96 months of Bush’s Presidency, with fully 43 months showing real unemployment of 9.0% or less. With the latest 9.3% U6 rate reaching the lowest figure of Obama’s tenure, the surface figures still lag behind more than half of the prior Administration’s workforce figures and remain above Bush’s 96-month average of 9.162%, which bested Clinton’s solid 9.175% real unemployment U6 average, by the way.
Since the latest drop is nothing more than smoke and mirrors with a year-end holiday laser lights display for good measure, let’s look at how more honest not seasonally adjusted figures show American workers fared in November using CPS figures from the Labor Department.
Who’s gotten the part time jobs, and who appears to have lost full time employment, should matter as much as the Establishment figure routinely reported by the media, which has benefitted from the birth/death cycle adjustment boost since the middle of 2009. That means of assuring rising monthly job figures in perpetuity is why the meager 50,000 jobs gained on not seasonally adjusted Household Data Table A-1 was reported as a relatively respectable 178,000 total nonfarm jobs added in November, as well as a 156,000 total private jobs increase last month. For perspective, the birth/death cycle regularly gifts as much as 200,000 jobs monthly, based upon a model that continues to count non-reporting, bankrupt and shuttered businesses’ employees for at least two calendar quarters, because there are always thought to be more businesses opening than closing across the year in a dynamic economy. For anyone interested in reading more about that wholly unsupportable assumption, consider looking into last month's detailed explanation under October's numbers belie recovery tab on the banner atop the page here.
Remarkably, the paltry 50,000 jobs added notwithstanding, according to HD Table A-1 not seasonally adjusted counts, the real story is who got those and how the .3% drop in unemployment came about.
The easier result to explain is the three-tenths drop in unemployment with nowhere near enough jobs to keep up with the influx of ready, increasingly educated workers expanding the labor force. The newcomers include 4.8 million young adults transitioning from America’s four-year baccalaureate degree-granting institutions and community colleges combined, together with more than two million native born holding secondary credentials alone, each of whom compete for jobs with another million-and-a-half fully documented, foreign newcomers awarded visas by the State Department. On a monthly basis, the economy must add between 200,000 and 220,000 jobs across the year to keep up with the increase in available workers. The increase in numbers of college degrees awarded, which is roughly double comparably credentialed Baby Boomers hitting retirement age, means the workforce needs to add 225,000 to 250,000 college educated newcomers, while those without completing high school or holding only high school graduate credentials should be falling like a rock, since their numbers are just a third of similarly educated Baby Boomers dropping from the ranks of the employed. Unfortunately, neither of those is anywhere close to what the BLS Household Survey shows happening on CPS figures.
At the heart of the drop in unemployment was the spike of 550,000 former, and mostly still available, age-appropriate workers who were dismissed to Not in Labor Force (NiLF) counts in November. The record high 95,089,000 was achieved after the latest half-million-plus hike followed increases of 83,000 in October, 402,000 in September, and a devastating 1,138,000 in August. The NiLF increase of 2,173,000 over the past four months is unprecedented, even as workers suffered the loss of 8.33 million jobs across Obama’s first two years in Office during 2009 and 2010. Lest there be any misunderstanding, the losses can hardly be reported as shared evenly or attributable, as the left is wont to do, to seniors over 65. Males made up 472,000 of the newly relegated NiLF, which was six times females’ increase of 79,000. HD Table A-6 showed 371,000 of those no longer counted amongst the unemployed ranging in age from 16 to 64, so the meme that blames the increase on Baby Boomers leaving the workforce could hardly be further from the truth. Last month, normal working age individuals jettisoned from counts of the unemployed made up more than two-thirds of the total at 67.5%, while seniors age 65 and over accounted for only 32.7%.
So who actually gained jobs, since the drop in unemployment was manufactured by another strategic dismissal of potential workers to NiLF counts? Over the past four months, that figure has vaulted an incredible 543,250 monthly, making the unemployment rate look very different from what it feels like to the 58.7% who are still of working age. In addition to the 95,089,000 NiLF, the Labor Department recognizes 7,400,000 unemployed, another 5,524,000 Americans who want jobs, which increased by 198,000 last month, and 1,932,000 marginally attached to the labor force, which also spiked by 215,000 in November. All told, the NiLF, persons wanting jobs but not considered unemployed, and marginally attached to the labor force show a disturbing 108,013,000 non-participants from the workforce, almost two-thirds of whom are working age potential contributors. The 108 million represents another Obama Administration high, while the unemployment rate falls mimicking Bush and Clinton numbers.
Several demographic shifts are unmistakable and show why many Americans cannot, and will not, celebrate employment figures the media and Obama appointees insist are impressive. In November, all job gains went to females, who added 253,000 overwhelmingly part time jobs, while males lost 203,000 for the month. White males lost 170,000 jobs, which was answered by white females taking 175,000 more jobs than they held at the end of October. Since Obama took Office, white members of the majority demographic, which the Census Bureau reports at 72.4%, have gained just 2,271,000 jobs, lagging far behind each of the minorities included in CPS counts.
Black or African American workforce hopefuls snagged the most jobs in November with 139,000 on not seasonally adjusted counts, and modestly more at 154,000 on the left’s commonly used seasonally adjusted estimate. Black males and females mostly shared success on the month, with men gaining 71,000 jobs and women counting 77,000. Across Obama’s 95 months in Office thus far, blacks have gained 3,087,000 jobs. In comparison with their white majority counterparts, an unemployed black in search of work has been 8 times more likely to be hired than the supposedly white privileged job hunters desperate for work and a return to self-sufficiency.
Hispanics gained 58,000 jobs in November, which was upped to 64,000 on BLS seasonally adjusted estimates. Latino females did especially well with 132,000 jobs gained, while Hispanic males slipped modestly with a drop of 46,000. Across the President’s 95 months in Office, Hispanics have been the big winners with 6,087,000 jobs gained. In comparison with their white counterparts, an unemployed Hispanic has generally been assured work with an astounding 12 times greater likelihood of being hired than an applicant from the majority demographic.
The foreign born were added as a new CPS category for the first time in January 2010, and have scored remarkable job growth for newcomers not always documented with the State Department and who’ve commonly shown limited facility with the nation’s long-established English language. In November, the foreign born gained 231,000 jobs, with most of those going to males. H1-B visa recipients are overwhelmingly male, but even their 26,000 average increase monthly on jobs guaranteed for 3 years by the State Department doesn’t explain last month’s 298,000 increase. Refugees whose jobs are arranged by the likes of Catholic Charities and Lutheran Social Services in communities they’re settled in ahead of their arrival, might account for a significant share of the eye-popping spike. While foreign born females lost 66,000 jobs last month, the 5,106,000 jobs gained overall by the foreign born since January 2010 dwarfs white Americans’ seeming workforce futility, and easily surpasses native blacks’ or African Americans’ foray into the ranks of the gainfully employed.
The ESR includes workforce figures based upon education attainment on HD Table A-4, and those are telling along with the dramatic shift to part time work and an increasingly female workforce last month. The category experiencing the most success in November was the least educated demographic, holding less than a high school diploma. Those with less than a high school education gained 103,000 jobs on the month.
In spite of needing to gain 225,000 to 250,000 to keep up with their average monthly increase in the labor force, those with a college education came in a distant second. Individuals with a bachelor’s degree and higher, including master’s and graduates with doctorate degrees, added 66,000 jobs last month. On average, at least 26,000 of those go to H1-B visa recipients monthly, but the spike in foreign born employed in November may have meant last month was higher and there were actually fewer than 40,000 of our own college graduates securing employment for the month. With September the only other month showing job gains for graduates with bachelor’s degrees and higher since midyear, after losses appeared in July, August, and October, it’s foolhardy to suggest anything close to the 4.8 million college graduates churned out in 2016, or the incredible 38.5 million over Obama’s eight years in Office, have found anything close to the success most hoped for – even expected – in return on their considerable investment in time and money.
With 2 million Americans transitioning into the workforce with some college, including individuals who completed professional credentials from other than 4-year higher education programs and those who earned associates degrees, their numbers at triple the rate of similarly credentialed Baby Boomers leaving the workforce suggest they should be seeing sizable job gains. Instead, in November, they lost 89,000 jobs after suffering job losses across four of the last five months. Only in October did young adults with some college gain jobs following three successive months of losses from July through September. Graduates from this group are amongst the 225,000 to 250,000 monthly who should be spiking the ranks of newly employed as a result of dramatically outnumbering their counterparts from early Baby Boomers who’ve reached retirement age.
High school graduates with no college had a tough November, losing 139,000 jobs, but that mostly just countered October’s gain of 143,000. Since July, the second least educated demographic on HD Table A-4 has gained 782,000, and their total increase of 1,410,000 across 2016 exceeds both college educated demographics combined. Of course, one might assume with dramatic spikes in Hispanics, the foreign born, and females who transition in and out of the work force in part time positions, our best educated aren’t the primary beneficiaries of Obama Administration job growth. Not in November, and not for the entirety of 2016.
There’s no disputing the Labor Department’s release, which suggests a 4.6% unemployment rate, but pretending we’re experiencing impressive job growth and something akin to full employment is rubbish. When one parses anything more than a handful of the 550 distinct CPS metrics, and almost a thousand CES data points from the Employment Situation Report, it feels like glasses which bring 3D visuals to life. Figures which the Administration and a fawning, complicit media ignore literally jump off the page to contradict the left’s narrative that we’re in full recovery mode and Americans should be celebrating a Camelot renaissance or some increasingly fairy tale like prosperity.
Hans Christian Anderson warned presciently of the fairy tale we’re really seeing in “The Emperor’s New Robe”. Much like the tale the weaver spun for his supposedly magnificent robe, the left insists anyone who doesn’t see a golden, economic recovery raining riches from the sky is unfit for inclusion in their imaginary, seemingly smoke induced pipe dream.
Count me out. And it’s hardly a stretch to believe doubters of the narrative include many of the 62.5-plus million who cast ballots for real, substantive change November 8, 2016. The Dow and a range of consumer sentiment polls spiking with optimism unlike anything Americans felt under Obama suggest we could finally, mercifully, be just weeks away from recovery that reaches more than just liberal elites and a select few demographics that were supposed to thrive under the Community Organizer turned President. This Christmas season may feel like it extends for weeks into months, as the majority is allowed a place in the economy once again.
For a more detailed explanation of Labor Department figures ahead of the election, consider reading “America embraces new paradigm: English is permitted & it’s okay to be white again!” under last month's header, October's numbers belie recovery.
The figure drawing the most attention is a claimed drop in unemployment during November from 4.9% to 4.6%. Unfortunately, the return to numbers not seen since 2006-2007 is largely explainable by looking at who got the meager number of jobs last month and the ruthless replacement of full time work with part time employment that saw November slash 628,000 full time positions, while employers added 678,000 part time jobs. That was on the heels of part time employment increasing by 1,338,000 in September and 497,000 in October. Household Data Table A-9 showed the part time spike replacing nearly 2 million full time workers over the past three months alone, after September’s loss of 1,164,000 full time employed, then October’s drop of another 140,000. The mind boggling 2,513,000 part time jobs added from September onward has averaged a shocking 837,670 entry-level, mostly minimum wage jobs monthly since the end of summer.
Thus far, 2016 has been brutal for adults seeking breadwinner jobs. Given media reports echoing Labor Secretary Thomas Perez’ comments for release with November’s Employment Situation Report, there must be someone gaining jobs, mustn’t there? After all, the .3% drop in the unemployment rate now shows the Obama Administration at a mid-4% range, like that recorded across the first three calendar quarters of the Bush Administration and all of 2006-2007. In fact, the Bush economy recorded 34 months at 4.9% or less, and another 9 at 5.0% for roughly half of Obama’s predecessor’s time in Office. The latest 9.3% U6 rate in November was bested 51 out of 96 months of Bush’s Presidency, with fully 43 months showing real unemployment of 9.0% or less. With the latest 9.3% U6 rate reaching the lowest figure of Obama’s tenure, the surface figures still lag behind more than half of the prior Administration’s workforce figures and remain above Bush’s 96-month average of 9.162%, which bested Clinton’s solid 9.175% real unemployment U6 average, by the way.
Since the latest drop is nothing more than smoke and mirrors with a year-end holiday laser lights display for good measure, let’s look at how more honest not seasonally adjusted figures show American workers fared in November using CPS figures from the Labor Department.
Who’s gotten the part time jobs, and who appears to have lost full time employment, should matter as much as the Establishment figure routinely reported by the media, which has benefitted from the birth/death cycle adjustment boost since the middle of 2009. That means of assuring rising monthly job figures in perpetuity is why the meager 50,000 jobs gained on not seasonally adjusted Household Data Table A-1 was reported as a relatively respectable 178,000 total nonfarm jobs added in November, as well as a 156,000 total private jobs increase last month. For perspective, the birth/death cycle regularly gifts as much as 200,000 jobs monthly, based upon a model that continues to count non-reporting, bankrupt and shuttered businesses’ employees for at least two calendar quarters, because there are always thought to be more businesses opening than closing across the year in a dynamic economy. For anyone interested in reading more about that wholly unsupportable assumption, consider looking into last month's detailed explanation under October's numbers belie recovery tab on the banner atop the page here.
Remarkably, the paltry 50,000 jobs added notwithstanding, according to HD Table A-1 not seasonally adjusted counts, the real story is who got those and how the .3% drop in unemployment came about.
The easier result to explain is the three-tenths drop in unemployment with nowhere near enough jobs to keep up with the influx of ready, increasingly educated workers expanding the labor force. The newcomers include 4.8 million young adults transitioning from America’s four-year baccalaureate degree-granting institutions and community colleges combined, together with more than two million native born holding secondary credentials alone, each of whom compete for jobs with another million-and-a-half fully documented, foreign newcomers awarded visas by the State Department. On a monthly basis, the economy must add between 200,000 and 220,000 jobs across the year to keep up with the increase in available workers. The increase in numbers of college degrees awarded, which is roughly double comparably credentialed Baby Boomers hitting retirement age, means the workforce needs to add 225,000 to 250,000 college educated newcomers, while those without completing high school or holding only high school graduate credentials should be falling like a rock, since their numbers are just a third of similarly educated Baby Boomers dropping from the ranks of the employed. Unfortunately, neither of those is anywhere close to what the BLS Household Survey shows happening on CPS figures.
At the heart of the drop in unemployment was the spike of 550,000 former, and mostly still available, age-appropriate workers who were dismissed to Not in Labor Force (NiLF) counts in November. The record high 95,089,000 was achieved after the latest half-million-plus hike followed increases of 83,000 in October, 402,000 in September, and a devastating 1,138,000 in August. The NiLF increase of 2,173,000 over the past four months is unprecedented, even as workers suffered the loss of 8.33 million jobs across Obama’s first two years in Office during 2009 and 2010. Lest there be any misunderstanding, the losses can hardly be reported as shared evenly or attributable, as the left is wont to do, to seniors over 65. Males made up 472,000 of the newly relegated NiLF, which was six times females’ increase of 79,000. HD Table A-6 showed 371,000 of those no longer counted amongst the unemployed ranging in age from 16 to 64, so the meme that blames the increase on Baby Boomers leaving the workforce could hardly be further from the truth. Last month, normal working age individuals jettisoned from counts of the unemployed made up more than two-thirds of the total at 67.5%, while seniors age 65 and over accounted for only 32.7%.
So who actually gained jobs, since the drop in unemployment was manufactured by another strategic dismissal of potential workers to NiLF counts? Over the past four months, that figure has vaulted an incredible 543,250 monthly, making the unemployment rate look very different from what it feels like to the 58.7% who are still of working age. In addition to the 95,089,000 NiLF, the Labor Department recognizes 7,400,000 unemployed, another 5,524,000 Americans who want jobs, which increased by 198,000 last month, and 1,932,000 marginally attached to the labor force, which also spiked by 215,000 in November. All told, the NiLF, persons wanting jobs but not considered unemployed, and marginally attached to the labor force show a disturbing 108,013,000 non-participants from the workforce, almost two-thirds of whom are working age potential contributors. The 108 million represents another Obama Administration high, while the unemployment rate falls mimicking Bush and Clinton numbers.
Several demographic shifts are unmistakable and show why many Americans cannot, and will not, celebrate employment figures the media and Obama appointees insist are impressive. In November, all job gains went to females, who added 253,000 overwhelmingly part time jobs, while males lost 203,000 for the month. White males lost 170,000 jobs, which was answered by white females taking 175,000 more jobs than they held at the end of October. Since Obama took Office, white members of the majority demographic, which the Census Bureau reports at 72.4%, have gained just 2,271,000 jobs, lagging far behind each of the minorities included in CPS counts.
Black or African American workforce hopefuls snagged the most jobs in November with 139,000 on not seasonally adjusted counts, and modestly more at 154,000 on the left’s commonly used seasonally adjusted estimate. Black males and females mostly shared success on the month, with men gaining 71,000 jobs and women counting 77,000. Across Obama’s 95 months in Office thus far, blacks have gained 3,087,000 jobs. In comparison with their white majority counterparts, an unemployed black in search of work has been 8 times more likely to be hired than the supposedly white privileged job hunters desperate for work and a return to self-sufficiency.
Hispanics gained 58,000 jobs in November, which was upped to 64,000 on BLS seasonally adjusted estimates. Latino females did especially well with 132,000 jobs gained, while Hispanic males slipped modestly with a drop of 46,000. Across the President’s 95 months in Office, Hispanics have been the big winners with 6,087,000 jobs gained. In comparison with their white counterparts, an unemployed Hispanic has generally been assured work with an astounding 12 times greater likelihood of being hired than an applicant from the majority demographic.
The foreign born were added as a new CPS category for the first time in January 2010, and have scored remarkable job growth for newcomers not always documented with the State Department and who’ve commonly shown limited facility with the nation’s long-established English language. In November, the foreign born gained 231,000 jobs, with most of those going to males. H1-B visa recipients are overwhelmingly male, but even their 26,000 average increase monthly on jobs guaranteed for 3 years by the State Department doesn’t explain last month’s 298,000 increase. Refugees whose jobs are arranged by the likes of Catholic Charities and Lutheran Social Services in communities they’re settled in ahead of their arrival, might account for a significant share of the eye-popping spike. While foreign born females lost 66,000 jobs last month, the 5,106,000 jobs gained overall by the foreign born since January 2010 dwarfs white Americans’ seeming workforce futility, and easily surpasses native blacks’ or African Americans’ foray into the ranks of the gainfully employed.
The ESR includes workforce figures based upon education attainment on HD Table A-4, and those are telling along with the dramatic shift to part time work and an increasingly female workforce last month. The category experiencing the most success in November was the least educated demographic, holding less than a high school diploma. Those with less than a high school education gained 103,000 jobs on the month.
In spite of needing to gain 225,000 to 250,000 to keep up with their average monthly increase in the labor force, those with a college education came in a distant second. Individuals with a bachelor’s degree and higher, including master’s and graduates with doctorate degrees, added 66,000 jobs last month. On average, at least 26,000 of those go to H1-B visa recipients monthly, but the spike in foreign born employed in November may have meant last month was higher and there were actually fewer than 40,000 of our own college graduates securing employment for the month. With September the only other month showing job gains for graduates with bachelor’s degrees and higher since midyear, after losses appeared in July, August, and October, it’s foolhardy to suggest anything close to the 4.8 million college graduates churned out in 2016, or the incredible 38.5 million over Obama’s eight years in Office, have found anything close to the success most hoped for – even expected – in return on their considerable investment in time and money.
With 2 million Americans transitioning into the workforce with some college, including individuals who completed professional credentials from other than 4-year higher education programs and those who earned associates degrees, their numbers at triple the rate of similarly credentialed Baby Boomers leaving the workforce suggest they should be seeing sizable job gains. Instead, in November, they lost 89,000 jobs after suffering job losses across four of the last five months. Only in October did young adults with some college gain jobs following three successive months of losses from July through September. Graduates from this group are amongst the 225,000 to 250,000 monthly who should be spiking the ranks of newly employed as a result of dramatically outnumbering their counterparts from early Baby Boomers who’ve reached retirement age.
High school graduates with no college had a tough November, losing 139,000 jobs, but that mostly just countered October’s gain of 143,000. Since July, the second least educated demographic on HD Table A-4 has gained 782,000, and their total increase of 1,410,000 across 2016 exceeds both college educated demographics combined. Of course, one might assume with dramatic spikes in Hispanics, the foreign born, and females who transition in and out of the work force in part time positions, our best educated aren’t the primary beneficiaries of Obama Administration job growth. Not in November, and not for the entirety of 2016.
There’s no disputing the Labor Department’s release, which suggests a 4.6% unemployment rate, but pretending we’re experiencing impressive job growth and something akin to full employment is rubbish. When one parses anything more than a handful of the 550 distinct CPS metrics, and almost a thousand CES data points from the Employment Situation Report, it feels like glasses which bring 3D visuals to life. Figures which the Administration and a fawning, complicit media ignore literally jump off the page to contradict the left’s narrative that we’re in full recovery mode and Americans should be celebrating a Camelot renaissance or some increasingly fairy tale like prosperity.
Hans Christian Anderson warned presciently of the fairy tale we’re really seeing in “The Emperor’s New Robe”. Much like the tale the weaver spun for his supposedly magnificent robe, the left insists anyone who doesn’t see a golden, economic recovery raining riches from the sky is unfit for inclusion in their imaginary, seemingly smoke induced pipe dream.
Count me out. And it’s hardly a stretch to believe doubters of the narrative include many of the 62.5-plus million who cast ballots for real, substantive change November 8, 2016. The Dow and a range of consumer sentiment polls spiking with optimism unlike anything Americans felt under Obama suggest we could finally, mercifully, be just weeks away from recovery that reaches more than just liberal elites and a select few demographics that were supposed to thrive under the Community Organizer turned President. This Christmas season may feel like it extends for weeks into months, as the majority is allowed a place in the economy once again.
For a more detailed explanation of Labor Department figures ahead of the election, consider reading “America embraces new paradigm: English is permitted & it’s okay to be white again!” under last month's header, October's numbers belie recovery.
