The nation’s economic condition, and employment in particular, has been at the forefront of both campaigns’ rhetoric and message to the public for months now.
While it’s hard to spin positive figures and argue for an economy worthy of returning Barack Obama to the Presidency, this Administration and the entire Obama campaign team have worked tirelessly to do just that. In spite of Benghazi, fast and furious, and Hurricane Sandy having impacted the electorate, nothing seems to have reached the level of how personally Americans have taken the economy which has more closely resembled the Depression from the 30’s than any period since that economy wiped out millions of Americans’ savings, investments, livelihood, and ability to lead what had been self-sufficient, even prosperous adult lives. Sound familiar to anyone for the Obama years referred to, at least through 2010, as the Great Recession?
There was ammunition for both campaign teams this past week to suggest the economy is far from recovery but, perhaps, turning. Whether it's turned enough for many of the 67 percent of the workforce, strictly by the numbers found on ETA counts, in place when Obama took Office in 2009 who lost jobs under this President remains to be seen. My impression is that the data buried in the BLS’ survey-based estimates will be too overwhelming and too powerful of a force to reelect the President whose jobs numbers are no more accurate or honest than his Benghazi, fast and furious, and personal records have been, while the public has continuously been fed carefully crafted spin.
Yes, the 171,000 jobs the BLS reported as having been added to the economy sounds promising, but it just approaches the heart of the 150,000 to 200,000 range that economists regard as necessary to incorporate newcomers into the economy from the ranks of the nation’s college educated, secondary and trade school graduates annually, on top of LPR’s awarded greencards, H1B recipients, and claims of a slowed growth of the illegal migrant population crossing our southern border. Remarkably, the Digest of Education Statistics shows our own young adults transitioning into the workforce counting upwards of 18 million over the past four years, while LPR’s topped 4.5 million, H1B visas awarded through the State Department counted 600,000 (including renewals), and internal ICE data suggests somewhere in the 4 to 6 million range of Latino, mostly Mexican National newcomers having entered the country since Obama took Office. Those real counts all suggest a 200,000 estimate monthly to keep up with newcomers ready and actively searching for work in this economy would be an unusually conservative estimate. So, how does the estimate of the best jobs performance in months play out after what were obviously, some believe intentionally, misleading jobs figures released on October 5th last month without including the nation’s largest individual State economy, which left California’s tough jobs data conspicuously
absent from the report?
Last Saturday, October 27th, the Employment and Training Administration’s advance report added to earlier ETA cumulative numbers reached 89,840,000 Americans having filed first time claims after losing jobs since Obama became President in 2009. The more accurate, real counts the ETA compiles from all 50 states’ Unemployment Insurance records of activity and claims, along with quarterly counts from nationwide payroll records, are in a different class from the BLS’ survey data gathered from up to 60,000 respondents from the Department’s four month rotation of strategically targeted contacts. The BLS methodology could be likened to a more controlled version of the political polling currently taking place, if one simply added up the total counts from a range of polls easily found at a handful of sites including dozens of estimates of predictive data. And that last term is largely what the BLS offers the American public in term of employment data, while the ETA posts and publishes verifiable nationwide counts.
Today is a watershed day for this Administration, because the ETA data gathered through Saturday, November 3rd, will top 90.2 million American workers separated from their jobs when the latest report is released next Thursday. Of course, that will be two days after the election, and the ETA doesn’t really compile user-friendly summary data. I’ve done that with easily followed counts across the Obama Presidency, which shows 195 weeks of real employment data through October 27th. The pattern is deeply entrenched enough with numbers consistently coming within a 20,000-30,000 range to confidently predict today’s total has reached the 90.2 million mark for jobs lost during Obama’s Presidency.
Some related figures include the latest count from the end of October approaching 23.3 million more previously employed Americans being parted from jobs under Obama than found themselves out of work during the comparable period 195 weeks into Bush’s second term. And the 133,886,830 American workers counted on employers’ payroll records when George Bush left Office in January of 2009 has only marginally come back to 128,066,082 on cumulative payroll counts for
October, which included a 2.5 million worker recovery from the second half of 2011 onward after nationwide counts dropped 8.3 million jobs entirely under the
failed Obama Administration since early 2009. For those of you who prefer the math done for you, the ETA data shows this Administration still down 5.8 million
jobs from the day our current President took the Oath of Office.
Nothing even close to the real Employment and Training Administration counts exists with the BLS, and the UI first claimant counts of (new) filers for unemployment assistance are more accurate than the government’s census counts. And today, the numbers of former working Americans who’ve filed for unemployment after losing jobs topped 90 million just ahead of the election.
There are a host of numbers similarly telling for the way Labor Department Secretary Hilda Solis has manipulated figures and worked to create a different impression with BLS data than was evident during prior Administrations when the figures were more believable. After Bush appointee John Hall’s four year term as
BLS Commissioner came to an end in January of 2012, there was no movement to replace the Commissioner, rather the President’s hyper-partisan, famously
liberal choice to head the DOL stepped up to direct that critical process of data gathering through the 2012 election. Among the deception and misdeeds engaged in by the BLS since Hall’s departure were a handful of significant changes to the data reported from as long as two to three years earlier for what the BLS now posts on charts of survey-based estimates.
Job losses during the final three months of the Bush Presidency were promptly hiked on several Solis directed BLS reports. November 2008 was given minor
adjustments through late 2011 to show 376,000 in job losses under Bush before those figures were hiked 300,000-plus 39 months after the fact to show a 716,000
loss of jobs for November beginning in March this year under the current BLS regime. Similarly, January 2009 losses were hiked significantly to 750,000, then
819,000 on posted data more than three years after the original survey estimates were released. Since November counts would always be assigned to Obama’s
predecessor, while January figures have consistently been assigned to Bush through the media, such hikes served a Democrat narrative suggesting the nation’s disturbing jobs losses were mostly attributable to George Bush. Now, consider that Bush’s final quarter of employers’ payroll record counts showed modest job losses in January of 2009 at just 16,000 from the hard-and-fast ETA counts after 19 straight quarters of verifiable job growth according to payroll data. There should be little misunderstanding about where real employment data can be found and where relying on politically driven counts is sure to give an impression different from the reality our workforce has faced under the Obama Administration.
The data that every American deserves to hear ahead of the election is that as of Saturday, November 3rd, 2012, the current Administration topped 90 million American workers purged from their jobs since Obama took the Presidency. No other statistic should come close in importance to that cumulative figure from Unemployment Insurance fund records compiled across the nation's 50 United States. The number is appalling, and of course, there’s been no significant return to work under Obama’s ugly economy, spin notwithstanding.
While it’s hard to spin positive figures and argue for an economy worthy of returning Barack Obama to the Presidency, this Administration and the entire Obama campaign team have worked tirelessly to do just that. In spite of Benghazi, fast and furious, and Hurricane Sandy having impacted the electorate, nothing seems to have reached the level of how personally Americans have taken the economy which has more closely resembled the Depression from the 30’s than any period since that economy wiped out millions of Americans’ savings, investments, livelihood, and ability to lead what had been self-sufficient, even prosperous adult lives. Sound familiar to anyone for the Obama years referred to, at least through 2010, as the Great Recession?
There was ammunition for both campaign teams this past week to suggest the economy is far from recovery but, perhaps, turning. Whether it's turned enough for many of the 67 percent of the workforce, strictly by the numbers found on ETA counts, in place when Obama took Office in 2009 who lost jobs under this President remains to be seen. My impression is that the data buried in the BLS’ survey-based estimates will be too overwhelming and too powerful of a force to reelect the President whose jobs numbers are no more accurate or honest than his Benghazi, fast and furious, and personal records have been, while the public has continuously been fed carefully crafted spin.
Yes, the 171,000 jobs the BLS reported as having been added to the economy sounds promising, but it just approaches the heart of the 150,000 to 200,000 range that economists regard as necessary to incorporate newcomers into the economy from the ranks of the nation’s college educated, secondary and trade school graduates annually, on top of LPR’s awarded greencards, H1B recipients, and claims of a slowed growth of the illegal migrant population crossing our southern border. Remarkably, the Digest of Education Statistics shows our own young adults transitioning into the workforce counting upwards of 18 million over the past four years, while LPR’s topped 4.5 million, H1B visas awarded through the State Department counted 600,000 (including renewals), and internal ICE data suggests somewhere in the 4 to 6 million range of Latino, mostly Mexican National newcomers having entered the country since Obama took Office. Those real counts all suggest a 200,000 estimate monthly to keep up with newcomers ready and actively searching for work in this economy would be an unusually conservative estimate. So, how does the estimate of the best jobs performance in months play out after what were obviously, some believe intentionally, misleading jobs figures released on October 5th last month without including the nation’s largest individual State economy, which left California’s tough jobs data conspicuously
absent from the report?
Last Saturday, October 27th, the Employment and Training Administration’s advance report added to earlier ETA cumulative numbers reached 89,840,000 Americans having filed first time claims after losing jobs since Obama became President in 2009. The more accurate, real counts the ETA compiles from all 50 states’ Unemployment Insurance records of activity and claims, along with quarterly counts from nationwide payroll records, are in a different class from the BLS’ survey data gathered from up to 60,000 respondents from the Department’s four month rotation of strategically targeted contacts. The BLS methodology could be likened to a more controlled version of the political polling currently taking place, if one simply added up the total counts from a range of polls easily found at a handful of sites including dozens of estimates of predictive data. And that last term is largely what the BLS offers the American public in term of employment data, while the ETA posts and publishes verifiable nationwide counts.
Today is a watershed day for this Administration, because the ETA data gathered through Saturday, November 3rd, will top 90.2 million American workers separated from their jobs when the latest report is released next Thursday. Of course, that will be two days after the election, and the ETA doesn’t really compile user-friendly summary data. I’ve done that with easily followed counts across the Obama Presidency, which shows 195 weeks of real employment data through October 27th. The pattern is deeply entrenched enough with numbers consistently coming within a 20,000-30,000 range to confidently predict today’s total has reached the 90.2 million mark for jobs lost during Obama’s Presidency.
Some related figures include the latest count from the end of October approaching 23.3 million more previously employed Americans being parted from jobs under Obama than found themselves out of work during the comparable period 195 weeks into Bush’s second term. And the 133,886,830 American workers counted on employers’ payroll records when George Bush left Office in January of 2009 has only marginally come back to 128,066,082 on cumulative payroll counts for
October, which included a 2.5 million worker recovery from the second half of 2011 onward after nationwide counts dropped 8.3 million jobs entirely under the
failed Obama Administration since early 2009. For those of you who prefer the math done for you, the ETA data shows this Administration still down 5.8 million
jobs from the day our current President took the Oath of Office.
Nothing even close to the real Employment and Training Administration counts exists with the BLS, and the UI first claimant counts of (new) filers for unemployment assistance are more accurate than the government’s census counts. And today, the numbers of former working Americans who’ve filed for unemployment after losing jobs topped 90 million just ahead of the election.
There are a host of numbers similarly telling for the way Labor Department Secretary Hilda Solis has manipulated figures and worked to create a different impression with BLS data than was evident during prior Administrations when the figures were more believable. After Bush appointee John Hall’s four year term as
BLS Commissioner came to an end in January of 2012, there was no movement to replace the Commissioner, rather the President’s hyper-partisan, famously
liberal choice to head the DOL stepped up to direct that critical process of data gathering through the 2012 election. Among the deception and misdeeds engaged in by the BLS since Hall’s departure were a handful of significant changes to the data reported from as long as two to three years earlier for what the BLS now posts on charts of survey-based estimates.
Job losses during the final three months of the Bush Presidency were promptly hiked on several Solis directed BLS reports. November 2008 was given minor
adjustments through late 2011 to show 376,000 in job losses under Bush before those figures were hiked 300,000-plus 39 months after the fact to show a 716,000
loss of jobs for November beginning in March this year under the current BLS regime. Similarly, January 2009 losses were hiked significantly to 750,000, then
819,000 on posted data more than three years after the original survey estimates were released. Since November counts would always be assigned to Obama’s
predecessor, while January figures have consistently been assigned to Bush through the media, such hikes served a Democrat narrative suggesting the nation’s disturbing jobs losses were mostly attributable to George Bush. Now, consider that Bush’s final quarter of employers’ payroll record counts showed modest job losses in January of 2009 at just 16,000 from the hard-and-fast ETA counts after 19 straight quarters of verifiable job growth according to payroll data. There should be little misunderstanding about where real employment data can be found and where relying on politically driven counts is sure to give an impression different from the reality our workforce has faced under the Obama Administration.
The data that every American deserves to hear ahead of the election is that as of Saturday, November 3rd, 2012, the current Administration topped 90 million American workers purged from their jobs since Obama took the Presidency. No other statistic should come close in importance to that cumulative figure from Unemployment Insurance fund records compiled across the nation's 50 United States. The number is appalling, and of course, there’s been no significant return to work under Obama’s ugly economy, spin notwithstanding.
